IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.9	#268
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.5	#83
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.5	#156

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.4	#341

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.2%	6.8%	3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.1	15.0

.500 or above	21.0%	58.4%	20.2%
.500 or above in Conference	33.7%	62.9%	33.1%
Conference Champion	2.8%	9.7%	2.7%
Last Place in Conference	18.2%	9.0%	18.4%

First Four	0.8%	0.7%	0.8%
First Round	2.8%	6.5%	2.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 6	11 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	5	North Carolina	L	77-99	2%
Nov 12, 2019	302	Campbell	W	77-72	69%
Nov 16, 2019	52	@ Davidson	L	65-84	5%
Nov 22, 2019	311	Cleveland St.	W	80-77	61%
Nov 23, 2019	185	Florida International	L	88-92	37%
Nov 29, 2019	90	@ Boise St.	L	68-82	11%
Dec 01, 2019	113	@ Stanford	L	72-84	14%
Dec 07, 2019	276	Charlotte	W	74-70	62%
Dec 16, 2019	204	Mercer	L	76-77	49%
Dec 21, 2019	124	@ Vanderbilt	L	69-81	16%
Dec 28, 2019	240	@ Delaware	L	71-75	35%
Dec 30, 2019	254	@ Drexel	L	79-83	38%
Jan 02, 2020	232	James Madison	W	75-74	53%
Jan 04, 2020	181	Towson	L	72-73	45%
Jan 09, 2020	246	@ William & Mary	L	78-82	36%
Jan 11, 2020	317	@ Elon	W	78-77	52%
Jan 16, 2020	148	Hofstra	L	78-82	37%
Jan 18, 2020	130	Northeastern	L	74-79	34%
Jan 25, 2020	123	@ College of Charleston	L	69-81	16%
Jan 30, 2020	181	@ Towson	L	69-76	27%
Feb 01, 2020	232	@ James Madison	L	72-77	34%
Feb 06, 2020	317	Elon	W	81-74	72%
Feb 08, 2020	246	William & Mary	W	81-79	56%
Feb 13, 2020	130	@ Northeastern	L	71-82	19%
Feb 15, 2020	148	@ Hofstra	L	75-85	21%
Feb 22, 2020	123	College of Charleston	L	72-78	31%
Feb 27, 2020	254	Drexel	W	82-80	57%
Feb 29, 2020	240	Delaware	W	74-72	55%
Projected Record						10 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.8	1st
2nd											0.1	0.6	1.6	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.0				4.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.1	2.5	2.0	0.6	0.1						6.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.0	3.6	2.4	0.5	0.0							9.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.7	4.6	2.4	0.4	0.0								10.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	3.3	4.9	2.7	0.4	0.0									12.0	6th
7th					0.0	1.0	4.0	5.3	2.9	0.4	0.0										13.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.6	4.6	5.3	2.3	0.3	0.0											14.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.7	2.8	4.8	4.5	1.6	0.2	0.0												14.6	9th
10th	0.6	1.7	3.3	3.6	2.1	0.6	0.1														12.1	10th

Total	0.6	1.7	4.0	6.6	8.6	10.7	11.6	11.4	11.1	9.9	7.7	6.0	4.4	2.9	1.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	99.2%	0.4		0.3	0.0
15-3	75.6%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0
14-4	54.9%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	21.4%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	5.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.8%	2.8		1.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																0.0		0.0	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.1%		57.7%	57.0%	0.7%	12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		1.6%
16-2	0.4%		44.0%	41.9%	2.0%	13.3											0.0		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		3.5%
15-3	0.8%		28.9%	28.9%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5
14-4	1.6%		18.7%	18.7%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.3
13-5	2.9%		16.9%	16.9%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.4
12-6	4.4%		9.6%	9.6%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.9
11-7	6.0%		7.2%	7.2%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	5.6
10-8	7.7%		5.0%	5.0%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.2	7.3
9-9	9.9%		3.2%	3.2%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.2	9.6
8-10	11.1%		1.9%	1.9%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	10.8
7-11	11.4%		1.0%	1.0%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.3
6-12	11.6%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.5
5-13	10.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.7
4-14	8.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.6
3-15	6.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
2-16	4.0%																							4.0
1-17	1.7%																							1.7
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		3.2%	3.2%	0.0%	15.0											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.3	96.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%