Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#150
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 9.8% 10.0% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 17.0% 17.4% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.2% 58.9% 30.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.6% 32.2% 10.3%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 10.7
.500 or above 98.3% 98.5% 89.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 98.4% 95.5%
Conference Champion 55.0% 55.5% 34.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four5.7% 5.7% 3.5%
First Round55.7% 56.4% 28.2%
Second Round31.4% 31.8% 11.4%
Sweet Sixteen13.6% 13.9% 3.2%
Elite Eight5.8% 6.0% 0.9%
Final Four2.5% 2.6% 0.4%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 24 - 25 - 5
Quad 38 - 213 - 7
Quad 410 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 279   Montana St. W 89-68 98%    
  Nov 08, 2019 191   Weber St. W 86-69 94%    
  Nov 12, 2019 305   Denver W 85-62 98%    
  Nov 15, 2019 325   N.C. A&T W 83-58 99%    
  Nov 18, 2019 121   Texas San Antonio W 85-74 84%    
  Nov 22, 2019 20   LSU L 77-78 45%    
  Nov 29, 2019 19   @ St. Mary's L 66-71 34%    
  Dec 04, 2019 330   @ San Jose St. W 85-65 95%    
  Dec 07, 2019 118   Fresno St. W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 14, 2019 67   BYU W 81-77 62%    
  Dec 18, 2019 79   South Florida W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 21, 2019 7   Florida L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 01, 2020 146   @ UNLV W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 04, 2020 77   San Diego St. W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 07, 2020 170   @ Air Force W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 11, 2020 95   Nevada W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 18, 2020 90   @ Boise St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 21, 2020 170   Air Force W 79-64 90%    
  Jan 25, 2020 179   Colorado St. W 82-66 91%    
  Jan 28, 2020 275   @ Wyoming W 80-65 89%    
  Feb 01, 2020 77   @ San Diego St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 05, 2020 146   UNLV W 81-67 87%    
  Feb 08, 2020 90   Boise St. W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 11, 2020 179   @ Colorado St. W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 15, 2020 118   @ Fresno St. W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 19, 2020 275   Wyoming W 83-62 96%    
  Feb 25, 2020 330   San Jose St. W 88-62 98%    
  Feb 29, 2020 92   @ New Mexico W 84-80 61%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.7 12.2 15.4 13.3 6.8 55.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.6 7.2 4.5 1.3 0.1 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.9 1.4 0.2 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 8.1 11.6 14.4 16.8 16.7 13.4 6.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.8    6.8
17-1 99.2% 13.3    12.6 0.7
16-2 92.0% 15.4    12.6 2.7 0.1
15-3 72.5% 12.2    7.7 4.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 39.4% 5.7    2.3 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.0% 55.0 42.3 10.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.8% 98.3% 70.7% 27.5% 3.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.0%
17-1 13.4% 93.2% 59.0% 34.2% 6.2 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.9 83.4%
16-2 16.7% 83.7% 52.7% 30.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 65.5%
15-3 16.8% 67.3% 41.8% 25.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 43.8%
14-4 14.4% 47.2% 32.1% 15.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.6 22.2%
13-5 11.6% 34.1% 26.6% 7.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.7 10.2%
12-6 8.1% 20.1% 16.8% 3.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.5 4.0%
11-7 5.3% 17.0% 16.3% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.9%
10-8 3.3% 9.8% 9.6% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.3%
9-9 1.9% 6.6% 6.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
8-10 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.4% 3.7% 3.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.2% 39.0% 19.3% 8.5 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.6 5.0 6.6 10.5 8.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 41.8 31.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.7 44.6 41.0 11.7 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 24.1 17.5 32.8 25.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.9 4.6 36.4 28.5 20.5 9.9