IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.2	#236
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.3	#135
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.4	#251

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#216

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.4%	4.5%	2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.4	14.9

.500 or above	35.0%	46.3%	21.5%
.500 or above in Conference	45.4%	53.1%	36.2%
Conference Champion	3.1%	4.3%	1.8%
Last Place in Conference	5.5%	3.9%	7.4%

First Four	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%
First Round	3.2%	4.2%	1.9%
Second Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 5	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2019	305	@ Denver	W	73-72	54%
Nov 15, 2019	140	@ UAB	L	65-73	22%
Nov 18, 2019	2	@ Kentucky	L	56-83	1%
Nov 21, 2019	281	Lamar	W	75-69	70%
Nov 23, 2019	153	@ North Dakota St.	L	67-75	25%
Nov 26, 2019	287	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	71-72	50%
Dec 01, 2019	179	@ Colorado St.	L	70-76	31%
Dec 04, 2019	191	Weber St.	W	77-76	54%
Dec 07, 2019	226	@ Southern Utah	L	73-77	38%
Dec 14, 2019	278	Northern Arizona	W	77-71	69%
Dec 18, 2019	275	@ Wyoming	L	71-72	47%
Dec 21, 2019	289	@ Long Beach St.	W	77-76	50%
Jan 02, 2020	351	@ Chicago St.	W	81-71	81%
Jan 04, 2020	234	@ UMKC	L	69-72	40%
Jan 11, 2020	168	@ Seattle	L	67-74	28%
Jan 16, 2020	55	New Mexico St.	L	66-77	19%
Jan 18, 2020	230	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-72	59%
Jan 23, 2020	197	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	66-71	35%
Jan 25, 2020	137	@ Grand Canyon	L	68-77	24%
Jan 29, 2020	228	California Baptist	W	76-73	59%
Feb 08, 2020	168	Seattle	L	70-71	47%
Feb 13, 2020	230	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	72-75	40%
Feb 15, 2020	55	@ New Mexico St.	L	63-80	9%
Feb 20, 2020	197	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-68	54%
Feb 22, 2020	137	Grand Canyon	L	71-74	41%
Feb 26, 2020	228	@ California Baptist	L	73-76	39%
Mar 05, 2020	234	UMKC	W	72-69	59%
Mar 07, 2020	351	Chicago St.	W	84-68	91%
Projected Record						12 - 16	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0		3.1	1st
2nd									0.0	0.3	1.5	3.3	2.5	0.9	0.2				8.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.5	3.2	4.7	2.8	0.4	0.0					11.6	3rd
4th							0.0	0.9	4.6	5.5	2.1	0.2	0.0						13.3	4th
5th						0.1	1.3	5.4	6.3	1.8	0.1								14.9	5th
6th					0.2	2.0	5.8	6.0	1.4	0.0									15.4	6th
7th			0.0	0.4	3.0	6.1	4.8	1.2	0.0										15.6	7th
8th		0.2	1.6	4.1	5.0	3.1	0.7	0.0											14.7	8th
9th	0.1	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0													2.7	9th

Total	0.1	0.9	2.6	5.2	8.5	11.2	12.6	13.5	12.8	10.9	8.3	6.5	3.7	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.0			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
14-2	82.8%	0.8		0.5	0.3
13-3	51.7%	1.0		0.5	0.4	0.1
12-4	21.7%	0.8		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
11-5	4.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	3.1%	3.1		1.6	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%		82.2%	82.2%		10.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
15-1	0.2%		35.9%	32.1%	3.8%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		5.6%
14-2	1.0%		27.3%	27.3%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.7
13-3	1.9%		17.5%	17.5%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.6
12-4	3.7%		13.9%	13.9%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	3.2
11-5	6.5%		9.2%	9.2%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	5.9
10-6	8.3%		6.2%	6.2%		14.9														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	7.8
9-7	10.9%		3.3%	3.3%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.2	10.5
8-8	12.8%		2.9%	2.9%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	12.4
7-9	13.5%		1.3%	1.3%		15.8																0.0	0.2	13.3
6-10	12.6%		1.0%	1.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	12.5
5-11	11.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																0.0	0.0	11.2
4-12	8.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
3-13	5.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.2
2-14	2.6%																							2.6
1-15	0.9%																							0.9
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.4%	3.4%	0.0%	14.6										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.9	1.0	96.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%