Preseason Rankings
Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-13.4#334
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.1#85
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#319
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#336
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 11.0% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 13.1% 38.2% 11.9%
.500 or above in Conference 45.2% 66.5% 44.2%
Conference Champion 15.8% 31.1% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 1.4% 5.4%
First Four4.6% 9.6% 4.3%
First Round1.9% 4.7% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 8
Quad 49 - 119 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 131   @ UAB L 62-80 4%    
  Nov 28, 2020 172   @ Kent St. L 68-84 8%    
  Dec 01, 2020 79   DePaul L 67-87 3%    
  Dec 03, 2020 227   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-79 13%    
  Dec 05, 2020 136   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-87 5%    
  Dec 10, 2020 271   @ California Baptist L 72-82 18%    
  Dec 12, 2020 200   @ Hawaii L 67-81 10%    
  Dec 22, 2020 147   @ Liberty L 56-73 6%    
  Dec 28, 2020 125   @ Santa Clara L 69-88 5%    
  Jan 02, 2021 237   Texas Southern L 78-84 31%    
  Jan 04, 2021 302   Prairie View L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 09, 2021 300   @ Jackson St. L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 11, 2021 316   @ Grambling St. L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 16, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 91-80 83%    
  Jan 18, 2021 338   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 23, 2021 344   @ Alabama St. W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 25, 2021 343   @ Alabama A&M W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 30, 2021 262   Southern L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 06, 2021 300   Jackson St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 08, 2021 316   Grambling St. L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 13, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 88-83 67%    
  Feb 15, 2021 338   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 20, 2021 344   Alabama St. W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 22, 2021 343   Alabama A&M W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 27, 2021 262   @ Southern L 67-77 19%    
  Mar 04, 2021 237   @ Texas Southern L 75-87 16%    
  Mar 06, 2021 302   @ Prairie View L 72-80 25%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 15.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.1 6.7 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.4 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.4 0.9 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.2 0.2 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.9 5.5 8.4 10.7 11.7 12.1 11.5 10.5 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 95.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
14-4 86.2% 2.2    1.8 0.3
13-5 73.1% 3.0    2.3 0.6 0.0
12-6 51.9% 3.2    2.2 0.9 0.0
11-7 33.7% 2.8    1.7 1.0 0.1
10-8 19.0% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0
9-9 4.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 15.8% 15.8 10.8 4.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 51.9% 51.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 49.2% 49.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1
16-2 0.5% 37.1% 37.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3
15-3 1.5% 24.7% 24.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.1
14-4 2.5% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 2.1
13-5 4.1% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.6 3.5
12-6 6.1% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 5.3
11-7 8.3% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.7 7.6
10-8 10.5% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.7 9.9
9-9 11.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.5 11.0
8-10 12.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 11.8
7-11 11.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.5
6-12 10.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.6
5-13 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
4-14 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.9% 3.9
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%