IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-14.2	#336
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.1	#273
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.6	#326

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.6	#337

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	5.5%	11.5%	2.7%
.500 or above in Conference	13.0%	19.9%	9.8%
Conference Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	34.1%	25.2%	38.2%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
First Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 31.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	0 - 5	0 - 7
Quad 4	5 - 10	6 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	265	Rice	L	71-76	32%
Dec 01, 2020	169	@ Wyoming	L	59-76	6%
Dec 05, 2020	143	@ Texas St.	L	58-76	5%
Dec 12, 2020	316	Grambling St.	L	68-69	47%
Dec 14, 2020	231	UT Rio Grande Valley	L	69-76	27%
Dec 21, 2020	265	@ Rice	L	68-79	17%
Dec 29, 2020	14	@ Texas Tech	L	53-85	0.3%
Jan 06, 2021	283	@ Northwestern St.	L	71-81	19%
Jan 09, 2021	312	@ New Orleans	L	70-78	24%
Jan 13, 2021	306	McNeese St.	L	72-75	40%
Jan 16, 2021	136	Stephen F. Austin	L	67-80	13%
Jan 20, 2021	236	@ Lamar	L	64-77	14%
Jan 23, 2021	303	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	66-69	40%
Jan 27, 2021	339	Houston Baptist	W	85-81	62%
Jan 30, 2021	173	Abilene Christian	L	64-75	19%
Feb 06, 2021	303	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	63-72	23%
Feb 10, 2021	283	Northwestern St.	L	74-78	36%
Feb 13, 2021	312	New Orleans	L	73-75	43%
Feb 17, 2021	306	@ McNeese St.	L	69-78	23%
Feb 20, 2021	136	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	64-83	6%
Feb 24, 2021	236	Lamar	L	67-74	30%
Mar 03, 2021	339	@ Houston Baptist	L	82-84	43%
Mar 06, 2021	173	@ Abilene Christian	L	61-78	9%
Projected Record						6 - 17	4 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0					1.1	3rd
4th									0.1	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.0						1.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.7	1.5	0.6	0.0	0.0						2.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	2.0	1.2	0.1								3.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.2	1.9	0.4	0.0								4.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.3	3.1	0.8	0.0									6.5	8th
9th					0.4	2.2	4.4	1.8	0.1										8.8	9th
10th				0.4	2.7	5.5	3.2	0.4											12.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.8	3.8	6.5	4.0	0.5	0.0											15.7	11th
12th	0.1	1.0	4.8	7.4	4.7	0.8	0.0												18.9	12th
13th	3.4	7.4	7.4	3.6	0.8	0.0													22.6	13th

Total	3.5	8.5	13.0	15.2	15.1	13.0	10.7	8.0	5.5	3.8	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0				Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	78.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
13-3	46.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
12-4	15.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-5	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.2%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1	0.0%																							0.0
14-2	0.1%		22.0%	22.0%		15.1																0.0	0.0	0.0
13-3	0.2%		6.7%	6.7%		15.3																0.0	0.0	0.2
12-4	0.5%		4.5%	4.5%		15.6																0.0	0.0	0.5
11-5	1.1%		4.9%	4.9%		15.8																0.0	0.0	1.0
10-6	2.0%		4.0%	4.0%		16.0																	0.1	1.9
9-7	3.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
8-8	5.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	5.4
7-9	8.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.0
6-10	10.7%																							10.7
5-11	13.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.0
4-12	15.1%																							15.1
3-13	15.2%																							15.2
2-14	13.0%																							13.0
1-15	8.5%																							8.5
0-16	3.5%																							3.5

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	15.9																0.0	0.2	99.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.7%