Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#252
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.6#41
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#183
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#314
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 7.0% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.6 14.7
.500 or above 34.0% 66.2% 32.1%
.500 or above in Conference 42.1% 63.8% 40.9%
Conference Champion 3.5% 9.9% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 5.1% 11.3%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round2.5% 6.9% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 5.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 48 - 510 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 68   @ Washington L 71-88 6%    
  Nov 27, 2020 298   Cal St. Fullerton W 79-77 58%    
  Nov 28, 2020 159   San Diego L 76-82 30%    
  Dec 03, 2020 256   Weber St. W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 05, 2020 256   Weber St. W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 13, 2020 129   @ Washington St. L 76-87 17%    
  Dec 31, 2020 132   @ Eastern Washington L 80-91 18%    
  Jan 02, 2021 132   @ Eastern Washington L 80-91 18%    
  Jan 07, 2021 230   @ Sacramento St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 09, 2021 230   Sacramento St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 14, 2021 209   @ Montana St. L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 16, 2021 209   @ Montana St. L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 21, 2021 299   Idaho St. W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 23, 2021 299   Idaho St. W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 04, 2021 140   Montana L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 06, 2021 140   Montana L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 11, 2021 266   @ Northern Arizona L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 13, 2021 266   @ Northern Arizona L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 18, 2021 322   Idaho W 82-73 76%    
  Feb 20, 2021 322   @ Idaho W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 25, 2021 166   @ Northern Colorado L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 27, 2021 166   @ Northern Colorado L 70-78 25%    
  Mar 04, 2021 192   Southern Utah L 78-79 48%    
  Mar 06, 2021 192   Southern Utah L 78-79 49%    
Projected Record 10 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 7.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 4.2 1.2 0.2 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.2 4.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 11.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.9 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.5 6.6 8.8 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.5 9.1 7.5 5.6 4.1 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.9% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 80.3% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 60.8% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 94.8% 94.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 95.6% 95.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 0.8% 68.8% 68.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.7% 47.4% 47.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9
15-5 2.3% 18.3% 18.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.9
14-6 4.1% 5.8% 5.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.8
13-7 5.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.6
12-8 7.5% 7.5
11-9 9.1% 9.1
10-10 10.5% 10.5
9-11 10.7% 10.7
8-12 10.6% 10.6
7-13 10.1% 10.1
6-14 8.8% 8.8
5-15 6.6% 6.6
4-16 5.5% 5.5
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%