Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#206
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#131
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 18.9% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 12.9 13.8
.500 or above 59.4% 78.8% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 81.1% 66.9%
Conference Champion 12.6% 19.7% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.7% 4.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round11.7% 18.8% 9.4%
Second Round1.7% 3.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 47 - 212 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 42   Oklahoma St. L 67-74 25%    
  Nov 27, 2020 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-73 26%    
  Nov 28, 2020 283   Northwestern St. W 79-72 75%    
  Dec 02, 2020 46   @ Arkansas L 68-81 13%    
  Dec 04, 2020 98   @ Tulsa L 62-70 24%    
  Dec 19, 2020 178   @ Oral Roberts L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 01, 2021 127   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 02, 2021 127   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 08, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 09, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 15, 2021 185   Louisiana W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 16, 2021 185   Louisiana W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 22, 2021 127   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 23, 2021 127   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 29, 2021 219   @ Arkansas St. W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 30, 2021 219   @ Arkansas St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 05, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 71-61 79%    
  Feb 06, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 71-61 79%    
  Feb 11, 2021 143   Texas St. W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 13, 2021 143   @ Texas St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 19, 2021 185   @ Louisiana L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 20, 2021 185   @ Louisiana L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 26, 2021 219   Arkansas St. W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 27, 2021 219   Arkansas St. W 75-68 73%    
Projected Record 12 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.4 3.4 3.0 1.5 0.5 12.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.9 4.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.6 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.8 4.9 7.0 8.9 9.8 10.7 11.2 11.0 8.9 7.5 5.7 3.5 1.6 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-1 94.2% 1.5    1.4 0.2
16-2 86.2% 3.0    2.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 60.4% 3.4    2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.8% 2.4    0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.5% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.6 3.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 100.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-1 1.6% 97.2% 94.1% 3.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 52.6%
16-2 3.5% 85.2% 83.2% 2.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 12.2%
15-3 5.7% 56.9% 56.0% 0.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 2.4 1.9%
14-4 7.5% 28.1% 27.8% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 5.4 0.3%
13-5 8.9% 12.0% 11.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 7.8 0.1%
12-6 11.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7
11-7 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.2
10-8 10.7% 10.7
9-9 9.8% 9.8
8-10 8.9% 8.9
7-11 7.0% 7.0
6-12 4.9% 4.9
5-13 3.8% 3.8
4-14 2.5% 2.5
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.9% 11.7% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.2 3.1 2.4 0.8 88.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%