Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#143
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#307
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 17.7% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 74.3% 81.3% 55.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 79.2% 64.3%
Conference Champion 15.6% 18.0% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.0% 4.4%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round15.1% 17.5% 8.6%
Second Round2.2% 2.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 73.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 410 - 215 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 303   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-62 73%    
  Nov 30, 2020 72   @ Mississippi St. L 62-72 19%    
  Dec 05, 2020 336   Incarnate Word W 76-58 95%    
  Dec 09, 2020 15   @ Texas L 56-73 7%    
  Dec 15, 2020 303   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-59 86%    
  Dec 19, 2020 305   @ Denver W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 21, 2020 266   Northern Arizona W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 01, 2021 185   @ Louisiana L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 02, 2021 185   @ Louisiana L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 08, 2021 219   Arkansas St. W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 09, 2021 219   Arkansas St. W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 15, 2021 127   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 16, 2021 127   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 22, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 23, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 29, 2021 185   Louisiana W 76-70 68%    
  Jan 30, 2021 185   Louisiana W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 05, 2021 127   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 06, 2021 127   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 11, 2021 156   @ Texas Arlington L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 13, 2021 156   Texas Arlington W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 19, 2021 219   @ Arkansas St. W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 20, 2021 219   @ Arkansas St. W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 26, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 70-59 81%    
  Feb 27, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 70-59 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 4.3 3.5 2.2 0.7 15.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.6 4.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.2 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.6 6.0 8.2 9.1 10.2 11.3 11.2 10.5 8.9 6.9 4.1 2.3 0.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-1 96.1% 2.2    1.9 0.3
16-2 84.8% 3.5    2.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 62.6% 4.3    2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.6% 3.0    1.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.4% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 9.4 4.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 100.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-1 2.3% 97.3% 96.1% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 30.8%
16-2 4.1% 85.7% 84.6% 1.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 7.3%
15-3 6.9% 62.7% 62.1% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.2 2.6 1.6%
14-4 8.9% 32.7% 32.3% 0.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 6.0 0.6%
13-5 10.5% 12.7% 12.6% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 9.2 0.2%
12-6 11.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.0
11-7 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
10-8 10.2% 10.2
9-9 9.1% 9.1
8-10 8.2% 8.2
7-11 6.0% 6.0
6-12 4.6% 4.6
5-13 2.9% 2.9
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.3% 15.1% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.8 5.0 2.9 1.2 84.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.4 14.8 33.3 1.9 16.7 3.7 29.6