Preseason Rankings
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#82
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#177
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 2.8% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 3.4% 6.0% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.3% 39.1% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.8% 16.4% 5.5%
Average Seed 10.5 9.9 11.2
.500 or above 89.1% 95.4% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 92.7% 84.4%
Conference Champion 30.2% 37.7% 24.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four2.6% 3.7% 1.7%
First Round28.0% 37.2% 21.4%
Second Round10.3% 15.2% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 5.7% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.2% 2.0% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Neutral) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 38 - 310 - 8
Quad 48 - 118 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 64   Northern Iowa L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 01, 2020 26   @ Louisville L 69-78 20%    
  Dec 03, 2020 302   Prairie View W 83-68 91%    
  Dec 04, 2020 127   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-74 65%    
  Dec 13, 2020 93   Rhode Island W 79-75 64%    
  Dec 22, 2020 304   Tennessee Tech W 81-63 94%    
  Dec 28, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 101-70 99.7%   
  Jan 01, 2021 164   @ Charlotte W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 02, 2021 164   @ Charlotte W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 08, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 09, 2021 109   Louisiana Tech W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 14, 2021 110   Marshall W 85-79 68%    
  Jan 17, 2021 110   @ Marshall L 82-83 49%    
  Jan 23, 2021 193   @ Middle Tennessee W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 24, 2021 193   @ Middle Tennessee W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 29, 2021 118   Old Dominion W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 30, 2021 118   Old Dominion W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 05, 2021 191   @ Florida Atlantic W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 06, 2021 191   @ Florida Atlantic W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 12, 2021 265   Rice W 86-70 90%    
  Feb 13, 2021 265   Rice W 86-70 91%    
  Feb 19, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 20, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 26, 2021 171   Florida International W 84-74 80%    
  Feb 27, 2021 171   Florida International W 84-74 81%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.5 8.5 7.5 5.0 1.5 30.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.9 5.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 4.8 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.9 6.4 8.3 10.3 11.6 12.9 12.6 11.3 8.1 5.0 1.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
17-1 99.7% 5.0    4.8 0.2
16-2 92.7% 7.5    6.4 1.1 0.0
15-3 74.9% 8.5    5.7 2.4 0.3
14-4 43.8% 5.5    2.4 2.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 14.9% 1.9    0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.2% 30.2 21.2 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 96.2% 65.5% 30.8% 4.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.1%
17-1 5.0% 88.3% 53.8% 34.4% 7.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 74.6%
16-2 8.1% 70.8% 45.3% 25.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 46.6%
15-3 11.3% 54.3% 35.7% 18.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 28.9%
14-4 12.6% 34.7% 27.6% 7.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.2 9.7%
13-5 12.9% 23.2% 20.5% 2.6% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.9 3.3%
12-6 11.6% 17.0% 16.2% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.6 1.0%
11-7 10.3% 11.7% 11.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.2%
10-8 8.3% 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.7 0.1%
9-9 6.4% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.1
8-10 4.9% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
7-11 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.3% 21.6% 7.7% 10.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.0 4.7 6.9 4.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 70.7 9.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.1 31.4 33.3 32.4 1.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 24.4 61.0 7.3 2.4 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 70.4% 3.6 3.7 3.7 14.8 44.4 3.7