IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wright St.
Horizon
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.1	#121
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.8	#31
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.9	#128

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.3	#130

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.4%	0.7%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	35.1%	40.4%	28.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.0%	1.6%	0.3%
Average Seed	13.2	12.8	14.0

.500 or above	90.6%	95.7%	83.8%
.500 or above in Conference	92.0%	95.2%	87.8%
Conference Champion	60.4%	67.2%	51.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.3%	0.9%

First Four	2.0%	1.7%	2.4%
First Round	34.3%	39.6%	27.2%
Second Round	5.7%	7.4%	3.4%
Sweet Sixteen	1.5%	2.1%	0.8%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	5 - 4	5 - 5
Quad 4	13 - 2	18 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 02, 2020	110	Marshall	W	86-84	57%
Dec 05, 2020	179	Miami (OH)	W	79-72	74%
Dec 13, 2020	146	@ Bowling Green	L	80-81	46%
Dec 19, 2020	245	@ Detroit Mercy	W	83-78	68%
Dec 20, 2020	245	@ Detroit Mercy	W	83-78	67%
Dec 26, 2020	240	Green Bay	W	92-81	83%
Dec 27, 2020	240	Green Bay	W	92-81	82%
Jan 01, 2021	243	@ Oakland	W	76-71	67%
Jan 02, 2021	243	@ Oakland	W	76-71	66%
Jan 08, 2021	199	Youngstown St.	W	80-72	77%
Jan 09, 2021	199	Youngstown St.	W	80-72	76%
Jan 15, 2021	242	Cleveland St.	W	80-69	82%
Jan 16, 2021	242	Cleveland St.	W	80-69	82%
Jan 22, 2021	295	@ IUPUI	W	86-78	75%
Jan 23, 2021	295	@ IUPUI	W	86-78	74%
Jan 29, 2021	212	Robert Morris	W	77-67	79%
Jan 30, 2021	212	Robert Morris	W	77-67	78%
Feb 05, 2021	216	@ Illinois-Chicago	W	78-74	62%
Feb 06, 2021	216	@ Illinois-Chicago	W	78-74	62%
Feb 12, 2021	272	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	83-70	85%
Feb 13, 2021	272	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	83-70	84%
Feb 19, 2021	167	@ Northern Kentucky	W	73-72	52%
Feb 20, 2021	167	@ Northern Kentucky	W	73-72	52%
Projected Record						16 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.1	1.1	4.3	8.9	12.2	12.8	10.7	7.0	3.1		60.4	1st
2nd										0.1	1.1	4.4	5.5	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.0				16.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.9	3.0	3.2	1.1	0.2	0.0						8.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.6	2.2	1.8	0.4	0.1								5.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	1.4	1.4	0.4	0.0									3.5	5th
6th							0.2	0.9	1.1	0.2	0.0										2.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.0											1.6	7th
8th					0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0												1.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1														0.6	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.3	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.4	2.0	3.4	4.8	6.5	9.2	11.0	12.9	13.7	13.0	10.7	7.0	3.1			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.1		3.1
17-1	100.0%	7.0		7.0
16-2	99.9%	10.7		10.6	0.1
15-3	98.2%	12.8		12.0	0.8
14-4	89.1%	12.2		9.9	2.2	0.1
13-5	69.2%	8.9		5.5	3.0	0.4	0.0
12-6	39.3%	4.3		1.6	2.0	0.7	0.0
11-7	11.6%	1.1		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-8	2.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	60.4%	60.4		50.0	8.6	1.5	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.1%		85.1%	76.5%	8.6%	8.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0			0.5		36.5%
17-1	7.0%		68.5%	64.8%	3.7%	11.9						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.5	1.5	0.4	0.0		2.2		10.5%
16-2	10.7%		56.1%	55.3%	0.8%	12.9										0.0	0.1	0.2	1.7	2.6	1.2	0.2		4.7		1.8%
15-3	13.0%		47.2%	47.0%	0.2%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.8	2.5	2.2	0.6	0.0	6.9		0.4%
14-4	13.7%		37.4%	37.4%		14.0													0.2	1.3	2.1	1.3	0.1	8.6
13-5	12.9%		31.4%	31.4%		14.4													0.0	0.5	1.6	1.6	0.4	8.8
12-6	11.0%		24.7%	24.7%		14.9													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.7	8.3
11-7	9.2%		18.2%	18.2%		15.3														0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	7.5
10-8	6.5%		14.8%	14.8%		15.6															0.1	0.3	0.6	5.5
9-9	4.8%		9.8%	9.8%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	4.3
8-10	3.4%		9.2%	9.2%		16.0																	0.3	3.1
7-11	2.0%		6.9%	6.9%		16.0																	0.1	1.9
6-12	1.4%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
5-13	0.6%																							0.6
4-14	0.4%																							0.4
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		35.1%	34.5%	0.6%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	1.2	4.6	8.9	8.4	5.9	3.6	64.9		1.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	1.2%	100.0%	5.5	1.4	3.8	8.5	19.4	22.7	18.4	11.0	5.2	3.4	3.2	1.6	1.4	0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	79.9%	9.6					6.0		6.0	11.9	9.0	13.4	18.7	14.2	0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	48.6%	10.2							8.6		8.6		19.0	12.4