Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#31
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#27
Pace63.5#300
Improvement+0.8#107

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#39
First Shot+5.0#47
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#102
Layup/Dunks-2.4#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#121
Freethrows+0.7#115
Improvement+1.6#40

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#36
First Shot+4.9#46
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#76
Layups/Dunks+3.3#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#136
Freethrows+1.4#64
Improvement-0.7#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 15.8% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% n/a n/a
Average Seed 7.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.1% n/a n/a
Second Round51.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen17.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight7.4% n/a n/a
Final Four2.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.9% n/a n/a
National Champion0.3% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 25 - 9
Quad 28 - 213 - 11
Quad 32 - 115 - 12
Quad 44 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 224   Northern Arizona W 73-55 94%     1 - 0 +12.0 -0.9 +14.2
  Nov 11, 2022 8   Gonzaga L 63-64 32%     1 - 1 +15.8 -7.7 +23.5
  Nov 15, 2022 26   Kentucky W 86-77 2OT 47%     2 - 1 +21.5 +2.9 +17.2
  Nov 18, 2022 55   Villanova W 73-71 70%     3 - 1 +8.3 +9.5 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2022 1   Alabama L 70-81 23%     3 - 2 +8.7 +6.4 +2.6
  Nov 25, 2022 47   Oregon W 74-70 57%     4 - 2 +14.0 +11.4 +2.9
  Nov 27, 2022 155   @ Portland W 78-77 78%     5 - 2 +4.8 +12.2 -7.2
  Nov 30, 2022 149   @ Notre Dame L 52-70 77%     5 - 3 -13.8 -13.4 -3.1
  Dec 04, 2022 43   Northwestern L 63-70 66%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +0.7 +0.7 -0.5
  Dec 07, 2022 40   @ Penn St. W 67-58 43%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +22.8 +0.2 +22.8
  Dec 10, 2022 192   Brown W 68-50 92%     7 - 4 +14.0 +5.1 +11.2
  Dec 21, 2022 273   Oakland W 67-54 96%     8 - 4 +4.0 -7.3 +12.3
  Dec 30, 2022 212   Buffalo W 89-68 93%     9 - 4 +16.0 +7.5 +7.1
  Jan 03, 2023 89   Nebraska W 74-56 80%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +21.0 +11.0 +11.6
  Jan 07, 2023 44   Michigan W 59-53 66%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +13.6 -8.1 +21.9
  Jan 10, 2023 61   @ Wisconsin W 69-65 50%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +15.8 +14.5 +1.9
  Jan 13, 2023 30   @ Illinois L 66-75 37%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +6.2 +5.9 -0.4
  Jan 16, 2023 7   Purdue L 63-64 43%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +12.8 +4.7 +8.0
  Jan 19, 2023 35   Rutgers W 70-57 64%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +21.4 +13.6 +9.1
  Jan 22, 2023 24   @ Indiana L 69-82 36%     13 - 7 5 - 4 +2.7 +6.1 -3.9
  Jan 26, 2023 34   Iowa W 63-61 63%     14 - 7 6 - 4 +10.6 -6.8 +17.5
  Jan 29, 2023 7   @ Purdue L 61-77 23%     14 - 8 6 - 5 +3.8 -0.2 +3.2
  Feb 04, 2023 35   @ Rutgers L 55-61 41%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +8.3 -2.9 +10.9
  Feb 07, 2023 25   Maryland W 63-58 58%     15 - 9 7 - 6 +14.7 +1.9 +13.4
  Feb 12, 2023 46   @ Ohio St. W 62-41 45%     16 - 9 8 - 6 +34.3 +5.5 +33.1
  Feb 18, 2023 44   @ Michigan L 72-84 44%     16 - 10 8 - 7 +1.5 +11.3 -10.8
  Feb 21, 2023 24   Indiana W 80-65 58%     17 - 10 9 - 7 +24.8 +17.8 +8.2
  Feb 25, 2023 34   @ Iowa L 106-112 OT 40%     17 - 11 9 - 8 +8.5 +20.4 -11.0
  Feb 28, 2023 89   @ Nebraska W 80-67 61%     18 - 11 10 - 8 +22.0 +18.5 +4.3
  Mar 04, 2023 46   Ohio St. W 84-78 67%     19 - 11 11 - 8 +13.4 +18.9 -5.1
  Mar 10, 2023 46   Ohio St. L 58-68 56%     19 - 12 +0.3 -3.1 +1.8
  Mar 17, 2023 42   USC W 69-68 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 12 11 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 99.1% 99.1% 7.4 0.0 0.1 2.6 13.1 39.4 33.3 9.9 0.8 0.0 0.9 99.1%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.1% 0.0% 99.1% 7.4 0.0 0.1 2.6 13.1 39.4 33.3 9.9 0.8 0.0 0.9 99.1%