Preseason Rankings
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#198
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 15.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 6.0% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.4 10.8 12.8
.500 or above 48.2% 64.7% 33.3%
.500 or above in Conference 55.1% 67.1% 44.1%
Conference Champion 7.0% 10.4% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 3.7% 10.6%
First Four2.2% 3.0% 1.4%
First Round9.1% 13.6% 5.0%
Second Round2.6% 4.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 68 - 13
Quad 46 - 214 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 174   @ Winthrop L 72-73 47%    
  Nov 15, 2022 206   Rice W 77-70 72%    
  Nov 19, 2022 131   @ Missouri St. L 70-73 38%    
  Nov 25, 2022 141   Hofstra W 75-74 52%    
  Nov 26, 2022 166   Stephen F. Austin W 72-70 57%    
  Nov 27, 2022 140   Montana St. W 72-71 51%    
  Nov 30, 2022 103   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-71 32%    
  Dec 10, 2022 115   @ Belmont L 71-76 35%    
  Dec 15, 2022 130   Chattanooga W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 21, 2022 114   Murray St. W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 29, 2022 164   @ Charlotte L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 31, 2022 107   Western Kentucky W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 05, 2023 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 79   North Texas L 59-61 42%    
  Jan 11, 2023 206   @ Rice W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 16, 2023 60   UAB L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 19, 2023 164   Charlotte W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 21, 2023 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 26, 2023 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 28, 2023 224   @ Florida International W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 02, 2023 148   UTEP W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 04, 2023 249   Texas San Antonio W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 09, 2023 107   @ Western Kentucky L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 11, 2023 60   @ UAB L 69-79 21%    
  Feb 16, 2023 125   Florida Atlantic W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 18, 2023 224   Florida International W 74-66 73%    
  Feb 25, 2023 121   Louisiana Tech W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 02, 2023 79   @ North Texas L 56-64 25%    
  Mar 04, 2023 148   @ UTEP L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.6 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.8 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.0 6.3 7.7 8.6 9.4 9.7 9.5 8.8 7.8 6.3 5.1 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 94.9% 1.2    1.1 0.2 0.0
17-3 74.5% 1.7    1.2 0.5 0.0
16-4 46.6% 1.6    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.9% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 4.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 98.4% 43.8% 54.7% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
19-1 0.6% 88.6% 41.1% 47.5% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 80.6%
18-2 1.3% 76.8% 33.5% 43.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 65.1%
17-3 2.3% 59.3% 27.3% 32.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 44.0%
16-4 3.5% 40.8% 22.3% 18.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 23.8%
15-5 5.1% 23.2% 15.2% 8.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9 9.5%
14-6 6.3% 16.7% 13.3% 3.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.9%
13-7 7.8% 11.8% 10.6% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8 1.3%
12-8 8.8% 7.1% 6.9% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 0.2%
11-9 9.5% 6.2% 6.2% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.9 0.1%
10-10 9.7% 4.7% 4.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9.2
9-11 9.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.1
8-12 8.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
7-13 7.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.6
6-14 6.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.2
5-15 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-16 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-17 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-18 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.1% 7.1% 3.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 89.9 3.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 18.3 32.9 24.4 24.4
Lose Out 0.0%