Preseason Rankings
Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#90
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#120
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.1% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 4.4% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.1% 21.3% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.0% 9.7% 1.7%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 10.2
.500 or above 85.6% 87.7% 61.9%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 79.1% 59.3%
Conference Champion 16.9% 17.7% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.7% 5.6%
First Four2.5% 2.7% 0.6%
First Round18.9% 20.0% 6.4%
Second Round8.9% 9.5% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 38 - 312 - 10
Quad 48 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 258   Navy W 77-62 92%    
  Nov 08, 2024 304   Central Connecticut St. W 79-62 94%    
  Nov 12, 2024 37   Villanova L 67-68 45%    
  Nov 15, 2024 166   @ Penn W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 21, 2024 21   Texas Tech L 69-75 30%    
  Nov 26, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 82-54 99%    
  Nov 27, 2024 104   Princeton W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 10, 2024 117   College of Charleston W 80-73 73%    
  Dec 18, 2024 252   American W 75-61 89%    
  Dec 21, 2024 74   Virginia Tech L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 28, 2024 340   Delaware St. W 82-61 96%    
  Dec 31, 2024 116   Massachusetts W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 03, 2025 94   @ Saint Louis L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 128   @ Duquesne W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 100   Loyola Chicago W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 17, 2025 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 135   @ Davidson W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 24, 2025 59   @ Dayton L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 29, 2025 128   Duquesne W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 100   @ Loyola Chicago L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 07, 2025 94   Saint Louis W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 12, 2025 173   La Salle W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 96   @ George Mason L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 19, 2025 150   @ George Washington W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 133   Richmond W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 120   St. Bonaventure W 74-67 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 159   @ Fordham W 75-71 62%    
  Mar 05, 2025 142   Rhode Island W 80-71 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 173   @ La Salle W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 4.9 4.0 2.1 0.6 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.4 9.1 10.9 11.6 11.8 10.6 9.3 7.0 4.4 2.2 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.7% 2.1    2.0 0.1
16-2 90.3% 4.0    3.2 0.7 0.0
15-3 70.1% 4.9    3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 38.9% 3.6    1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.1% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 10.4 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 99.6% 53.8% 45.8% 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
17-1 2.2% 92.8% 45.7% 47.1% 5.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 86.7%
16-2 4.4% 78.5% 37.8% 40.7% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 65.4%
15-3 7.0% 61.6% 31.6% 30.0% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 43.8%
14-4 9.3% 40.5% 23.7% 16.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.5 22.1%
13-5 10.6% 24.6% 17.3% 7.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.0 8.7%
12-6 11.8% 14.3% 12.0% 2.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.1 2.6%
11-7 11.6% 7.7% 7.0% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.7%
10-8 10.9% 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.1%
9-9 9.1% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.1%
8-10 7.4% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.0%
7-11 5.7% 0.7% 0.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.1% 12.3% 7.9% 9.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.9 5.3 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 79.9 9.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 32.5 46.2 16.2 0.9 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 35.7 27.1 21.4 15.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 31.3 18.8 15.6 34.4