Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#252
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.6#357
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#228
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 15.1% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 44.6% 65.4% 37.8%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 77.8% 62.5%
Conference Champion 12.6% 19.5% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.2% 5.4%
First Four2.9% 2.6% 3.0%
First Round9.1% 13.7% 7.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Away) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 412 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 173   @ La Salle L 63-70 25%    
  Nov 10, 2024 182   Harvard L 65-66 47%    
  Nov 12, 2024 339   @ Siena W 65-62 63%    
  Nov 15, 2024 7   @ North Carolina L 59-83 1%    
  Nov 18, 2024 125   @ High Point L 66-76 19%    
  Nov 22, 2024 205   UMKC L 64-66 42%    
  Nov 24, 2024 259   Albany W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 04, 2024 150   George Washington L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 18, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's L 61-75 11%    
  Dec 22, 2024 57   @ Virginia L 49-66 7%    
  Dec 29, 2024 272   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 02, 2025 258   @ Navy L 62-65 41%    
  Jan 05, 2025 348   Holy Cross W 71-61 81%    
  Jan 08, 2025 266   @ Boston University L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 268   Bucknell W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 13, 2025 350   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 348   @ Holy Cross W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 22, 2025 264   Lehigh W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 171   Colgate L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 199   @ Lafayette L 60-66 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 321   Army W 64-57 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 268   @ Bucknell L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 264   @ Lehigh L 67-70 42%    
  Feb 10, 2025 199   Lafayette W 63-62 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 350   Loyola Maryland W 70-59 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 321   @ Army W 61-60 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 266   Boston University W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 258   Navy W 65-62 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 171   @ Colgate L 61-68 28%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.2 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.2 12.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.6 4.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 4.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.4 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.0 9.6 11.0 11.6 11.3 9.9 8.4 6.4 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 95.4% 2.2    1.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.0% 3.4    2.5 0.9 0.1
14-4 51.1% 3.2    1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 22.8% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 62.2% 62.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 51.4% 51.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.3% 42.3% 42.3% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.3% 34.3% 34.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 2.8
14-4 6.4% 25.0% 25.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 4.8
13-5 8.4% 19.7% 19.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 6.7
12-6 9.9% 14.5% 14.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 8.5
11-7 11.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 10.3
10-8 11.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 10.8
9-9 11.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.5
8-10 9.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
7-11 8.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.9
6-12 6.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.8 89.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%