IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bowling Green
Mid-American
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.0	#265
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.8	#161
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.3	#250

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#263

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.6%	5.5%	2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	14.5	15.0

.500 or above	38.9%	56.8%	29.8%
.500 or above in Conference	48.5%	59.9%	42.7%
Conference Champion	4.2%	6.6%	3.0%
Last Place in Conference	8.9%	5.1%	10.8%

First Four	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
First Round	3.3%	5.2%	2.4%
Second Round	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 7	13 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	236	@ Southern Miss	L	69-73	34%
Nov 08, 2024	135	Davidson	L	66-70	36%
Nov 16, 2024	24	@ Michigan St.	L	58-78	3%
Nov 19, 2024	308	Niagara	W	74-68	69%
Nov 23, 2024	299	@ Bellarmine	L	69-70	47%
Nov 29, 2024	179	Weber St.	L	68-72	35%
Dec 07, 2024	320	Morgan St.	W	79-72	72%
Dec 14, 2024	205	@ UMKC	L	67-73	31%
Dec 21, 2024	201	St. Thomas	W	68-67	50%
Jan 04, 2025	131	Akron	L	67-71	36%
Jan 07, 2025	311	@ Western Michigan	W	73-72	50%
Jan 11, 2025	240	@ Ball St.	L	69-73	36%
Jan 14, 2025	337	Buffalo	W	78-69	77%
Jan 18, 2025	287	Eastern Michigan	W	71-67	64%
Jan 21, 2025	233	@ Miami (OH)	L	68-73	35%
Jan 25, 2025	168	Toledo	L	75-77	44%
Jan 28, 2025	118	@ Kent St.	L	65-76	18%
Feb 01, 2025	277	@ Central Michigan	L	66-69	42%
Feb 04, 2025	306	Northern Illinois	W	75-70	67%
Feb 11, 2025	121	Ohio	L	70-75	35%
Feb 15, 2025	337	@ Buffalo	W	75-72	59%
Feb 18, 2025	118	Kent St.	L	68-73	34%
Feb 22, 2025	168	@ Toledo	L	72-80	26%
Feb 25, 2025	287	@ Eastern Michigan	L	68-70	44%
Mar 01, 2025	240	Ball St.	W	72-70	56%
Mar 04, 2025	306	@ Northern Illinois	L	72-73	48%
Mar 07, 2025	311	Western Michigan	W	76-70	69%
Projected Record						12 - 15	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.1		4.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.4	2.3	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.0			6.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.1	3.2	1.8	0.4	0.0	0.0				7.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.4	4.0	2.1	0.3	0.0						9.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.7	4.5	2.1	0.3	0.0							10.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.3	4.8	2.4	0.3	0.0								10.1	6th
7th							0.2	2.2	4.9	2.9	0.4	0.0									10.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.0	4.9	2.9	0.5	0.0										10.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.7	4.3	3.0	0.6	0.0											9.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	1.7	3.6	2.6	0.6	0.0												8.8	10th
11th		0.0	0.5	1.7	2.7	1.9	0.4	0.0													7.3	11th
12th	0.2	0.7	1.6	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.0														5.3	12th

Total	0.2	0.7	2.1	3.6	5.5	7.7	9.7	11.0	11.1	11.2	10.1	8.7	7.1	5.0	3.2	1.9	0.9	0.3	0.1			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	98.3%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	92.6%	0.9		0.7	0.2	0.0
15-3	62.7%	1.2		0.7	0.4	0.1
14-4	36.0%	1.1		0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	10.1%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.2%	4.2		2.3	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		45.5%	45.5%		11.3								0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.3%		34.8%	34.8%		12.5										0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
16-2	0.9%		27.8%	27.8%		13.2													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.7
15-3	1.9%		18.9%	18.9%		13.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.5
14-4	3.2%		15.5%	15.5%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	2.7
13-5	5.0%		12.0%	12.0%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	4.4
12-6	7.1%		7.7%	7.7%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	6.5
11-7	8.7%		5.1%	5.1%		15.4													0.0		0.0	0.2	0.2	8.3
10-8	10.1%		3.8%	3.8%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.8
9-9	11.2%		2.7%	2.7%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	10.9
8-10	11.1%		0.9%	0.9%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.0
7-11	11.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
6-12	9.7%																							9.7
5-13	7.7%																							7.7
4-14	5.5%																							5.5
3-15	3.6%																							3.6
2-16	2.1%																							2.1
1-17	0.7%																							0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	14.7								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.2	1.1	96.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%