Preseason Rankings
Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#279
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#318
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#266
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.3% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 27.2% 39.4% 17.4%
.500 or above in Conference 43.9% 53.3% 36.4%
Conference Champion 5.6% 7.8% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 10.2% 18.6%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
First Round4.7% 6.6% 3.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 410 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 191   UC Davis L 66-67 44%    
  Nov 11, 2024 91   @ Washington St. L 58-73 8%    
  Nov 16, 2024 32   @ BYU L 61-81 3%    
  Nov 23, 2024 218   Southern Utah L 70-73 40%    
  Nov 24, 2024 282   @ San Diego L 70-73 40%    
  Nov 30, 2024 183   UC Riverside L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 04, 2024 205   @ UMKC L 64-70 29%    
  Dec 07, 2024 123   @ Oregon St. L 60-71 16%    
  Dec 15, 2024 162   UC San Diego L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 18, 2024 191   @ UC Davis L 63-70 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 314   @ Pacific L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 02, 2025 149   Montana St. L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 190   Montana L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 300   @ Sacramento St. L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 257   @ Portland St. L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 262   Eastern Washington W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 20, 2025 190   @ Montana L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 23, 2025 226   Northern Colorado W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 179   @ Weber St. L 63-71 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 315   @ Idaho St. L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 06, 2025 257   Portland St. W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 300   Sacramento St. W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 262   @ Eastern Washington L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona L 69-72 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 226   @ Northern Colorado L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 27, 2025 315   Idaho St. W 67-61 68%    
  Mar 01, 2025 179   Weber St. L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 149   @ Montana St. L 65-74 22%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 3.9 1.8 0.2 11.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.5 6.6 8.8 10.2 10.9 11.0 10.7 9.5 7.9 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 95.7% 0.7    0.7 0.0
15-3 81.9% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 57.9% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.2% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 63.5% 63.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 57.1% 57.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 41.0% 41.0% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.5% 31.8% 31.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.8% 23.6% 23.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1
13-5 4.4% 17.1% 17.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.6
12-6 6.1% 12.5% 12.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 5.3
11-7 7.9% 8.9% 8.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.2
10-8 9.5% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.9
9-9 10.7% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 10.2
8-10 11.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.8
7-11 10.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.2
5-13 8.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.7
4-14 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
3-15 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
2-16 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.6
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%