Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Sun Belt
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#107
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#68
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 25.1% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.2 11.9 12.9
.500 or above 85.1% 90.9% 74.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 92.1% 83.0%
Conference Champion 31.3% 35.8% 22.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round21.6% 24.8% 15.5%
Second Round5.2% 6.4% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 58 - 7
Quad 411 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 121   Ohio W 76-72 66%    
  Nov 09, 2024 251   @ Norfolk St. W 74-69 69%    
  Nov 16, 2024 124   @ Towson L 66-67 45%    
  Nov 21, 2024 203   Illinois-Chicago W 76-70 71%    
  Nov 29, 2024 96   George Mason W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 03, 2024 170   East Tennessee St. W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 07, 2024 151   Utah Valley W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 17, 2024 41   @ Wake Forest L 70-80 20%    
  Dec 21, 2024 223   @ South Alabama W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 02, 2025 236   Southern Miss W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 134   Arkansas St. W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 09, 2025 194   @ Marshall W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 139   @ Appalachian St. L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 16, 2025 194   Marshall W 81-72 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 139   Appalachian St. W 74-68 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 227   @ Old Dominion W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 204   @ Georgia St. W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 30, 2025 291   Coastal Carolina W 82-68 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 227   Old Dominion W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 05, 2025 129   Troy W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 209   @ Georgia Southern W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 291   @ Coastal Carolina W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 20, 2025 204   Georgia St. W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 209   Georgia Southern W 80-70 78%    
  Feb 25, 2025 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 28, 2025 185   @ Texas St. W 72-70 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.4 8.3 8.2 5.2 2.0 31.3 1st
2nd 0.3 2.3 5.7 5.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.1 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.5 6.1 8.0 10.0 11.8 12.5 12.9 11.5 8.9 5.2 2.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
17-1 98.8% 5.2    4.9 0.3
16-2 92.1% 8.2    6.7 1.5 0.1
15-3 72.3% 8.3    5.3 2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 42.1% 5.4    2.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.5% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.3% 31.3 21.5 7.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.0% 73.4% 63.3% 10.2% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 27.6%
17-1 5.2% 55.7% 50.7% 5.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 10.2%
16-2 8.9% 42.4% 40.9% 1.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 2.5%
15-3 11.5% 34.2% 34.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.6 0.2%
14-4 12.9% 27.3% 27.2% 0.0% 12.9 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.0%
13-5 12.5% 20.1% 20.1% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.0
12-6 11.8% 15.4% 15.4% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.0
11-7 10.0% 10.6% 10.6% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.9
10-8 8.0% 5.8% 5.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.6
9-9 6.1% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
8-10 4.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
7-11 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.8% 21.2% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.5 6.7 6.1 3.0 1.2 0.2 78.2 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.0 6.9 18.4 15.1 29.8 8.9 12.2 3.8 2.6 1.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 74.4% 6.3 16.3 18.6 10.5 17.4 1.2 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 72.9% 7.0 8.5 22.0 8.5 15.3 18.6