Preseason Rankings
Marquette
Big East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.3#92
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.2% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 9.8% 10.1% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 24.0% 24.6% 6.0%
Top 6 Seed 38.7% 39.4% 13.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.2% 65.1% 34.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.1% 62.0% 32.6%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.3
.500 or above 76.5% 77.4% 46.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 67.7% 45.3%
Conference Champion 8.5% 8.7% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 3.3% 10.0%
First Four4.4% 4.4% 4.6%
First Round62.0% 62.9% 33.0%
Second Round42.6% 43.3% 18.7%
Sweet Sixteen21.5% 22.0% 7.4%
Elite Eight10.0% 10.3% 2.3%
Final Four4.5% 4.6% 0.7%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.3%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.2%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 26 - 311 - 12
Quad 34 - 116 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 260   Stony Brook W 83-63 97%    
  Nov 08, 2024 96   George Mason W 73-64 80%    
  Nov 11, 2024 277   Central Michigan W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 15, 2024 38   @ Maryland L 68-70 43%    
  Nov 19, 2024 12   Purdue L 73-74 50%    
  Nov 23, 2024 61   Georgia W 76-73 62%    
  Nov 27, 2024 356   Stonehill W 86-57 99%    
  Nov 30, 2024 238   Western Carolina W 82-63 95%    
  Dec 04, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 67-74 27%    
  Dec 07, 2024 44   Wisconsin W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 59   @ Dayton W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 18, 2024 72   Butler W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 28   @ Xavier L 77-80 41%    
  Dec 31, 2024 48   @ Providence L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 03, 2025 13   Creighton W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 07, 2025 101   Georgetown W 80-70 79%    
  Jan 14, 2025 122   @ DePaul W 77-70 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 28   Xavier W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 21, 2025 68   @ Seton Hall W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 24, 2025 37   Villanova W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 28, 2025 72   @ Butler W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 1   Connecticut L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 18   @ St. John's L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 13   @ Creighton L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 11, 2025 122   DePaul W 80-67 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 68   Seton Hall W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 21, 2025 37   @ Villanova L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 48   Providence W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 101   @ Georgetown W 77-73 62%    
  Mar 04, 2025 1   @ Connecticut L 65-76 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 18   St. John's W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.0 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.3 5.9 7.6 9.2 10.4 10.7 10.5 10.2 8.4 6.8 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.7% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 71.0% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.0
16-4 44.6% 2.2    1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.1% 1.4    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 5.2 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 55.2% 44.8% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 49.1% 50.9% 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.0% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.9 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.9% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 2.6 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.8% 99.9% 19.3% 80.6% 3.4 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.4% 99.7% 13.8% 85.9% 4.5 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 10.2% 98.1% 9.4% 88.7% 5.6 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.9%
12-8 10.5% 93.4% 6.3% 87.1% 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.7 92.9%
11-9 10.7% 82.3% 4.1% 78.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.9 81.5%
10-10 10.4% 62.1% 3.2% 58.9% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 60.8%
9-11 9.2% 32.1% 1.4% 30.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.2 31.1%
8-12 7.6% 10.8% 0.8% 10.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.8 10.1%
7-13 5.9% 2.7% 0.6% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 2.1%
6-14 4.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.3%
5-15 2.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.1%
4-16 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.2% 8.1% 56.1% 5.8 4.1 5.8 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.4 6.4 5.3 4.6 4.1 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.8 61.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0