Preseason Rankings
Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#243
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#189
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#331
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 13.2% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 39.0% 56.7% 30.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.8% 78.8% 63.8%
Conference Champion 12.0% 17.4% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.7% 4.1%
First Four2.4% 2.1% 2.5%
First Round8.8% 12.4% 6.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Home) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 53 - 11
Quad 412 - 715 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 111   Vermont L 59-64 33%    
  Nov 13, 2024 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-72 10%    
  Nov 17, 2024 104   Princeton L 63-69 30%    
  Nov 20, 2024 29   @ Rutgers L 55-74 5%    
  Nov 22, 2024 72   @ Butler L 61-76 10%    
  Nov 25, 2024 143   @ Umass Lowell L 66-74 24%    
  Nov 25, 2024 232   Texas San Antonio L 72-73 48%    
  Nov 29, 2024 129   @ Troy L 64-73 21%    
  Dec 06, 2024 297   @ Canisius W 66-65 50%    
  Dec 08, 2024 308   @ Niagara W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 13, 2024 266   Boston University W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 17, 2024 93   @ Stanford L 64-77 13%    
  Dec 19, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 52-70 6%    
  Jan 03, 2025 237   Fairfield W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 10, 2025 334   @ Sacred Heart W 71-67 62%    
  Jan 12, 2025 331   Manhattan W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 16, 2025 212   @ Quinnipiac L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 339   Siena W 69-59 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 214   @ St. Peter's L 58-62 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 237   @ Fairfield L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 31, 2025 270   Mount St. Mary's W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 02, 2025 241   @ Rider L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 308   Niagara W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 297   Canisius W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 14, 2025 331   @ Manhattan W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 16, 2025 235   Marist W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 21, 2025 334   Sacred Heart W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 23, 2025 210   @ Iona L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 28, 2025 241   Rider W 69-66 60%    
  Mar 02, 2025 212   Quinnipiac W 72-70 56%    
  Mar 06, 2025 235   @ Marist L 60-63 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.2 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.6 0.9 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.2 8.8 9.8 10.6 10.8 10.2 8.7 7.2 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.7% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 95.9% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 82.5% 2.8    2.2 0.6 0.0
16-4 59.6% 3.2    1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 29.5% 2.1    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.9% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 7.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 64.8% 63.7% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3%
19-1 0.9% 48.3% 48.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
18-2 1.9% 40.0% 40.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1
17-3 3.4% 33.1% 33.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3
16-4 5.3% 25.1% 25.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 4.0
15-5 7.2% 20.5% 20.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 5.7
14-6 8.7% 15.9% 15.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 7.3
13-7 10.2% 11.5% 11.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 9.0
12-8 10.8% 8.2% 8.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 9.9
11-9 10.6% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.1
10-10 9.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.4
9-11 8.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.7
8-12 7.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.1
7-13 5.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.1 90.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%