IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.0	#286
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.9	#131
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#246

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.0	#314

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.9%	9.4%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.5	15.1

.500 or above	36.0%	63.2%	33.7%
.500 or above in Conference	41.0%	59.8%	39.3%
Conference Champion	5.1%	10.7%	4.7%
Last Place in Conference	16.7%	7.5%	17.5%

First Four	1.2%	1.3%	1.2%
First Round	4.3%	8.8%	3.9%
Second Round	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 8.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 8	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2024	93	@ Stanford	L	68-83	8%
Nov 14, 2024	314	@ Pacific	L	74-75	47%
Nov 22, 2024	329	Incarnate Word	W	80-73	74%
Nov 26, 2024	287	Eastern Michigan	W	71-70	51%
Nov 27, 2024	357	@ Houston Christian	W	81-76	68%
Dec 04, 2024	225	@ Oral Roberts	L	71-77	31%
Dec 07, 2024	274	South Dakota	W	78-76	58%
Dec 14, 2024	217	@ Pepperdine	L	70-76	30%
Dec 21, 2024	218	@ Southern Utah	L	73-79	30%
Jan 02, 2025	315	Idaho St.	W	71-66	67%
Jan 04, 2025	179	Weber St.	L	70-72	42%
Jan 09, 2025	190	@ Montana	L	69-77	25%
Jan 11, 2025	149	@ Montana St.	L	69-79	20%
Jan 16, 2025	300	Sacramento St.	W	70-66	63%
Jan 18, 2025	257	Portland St.	W	75-73	55%
Jan 23, 2025	262	@ Eastern Washington	L	76-80	37%
Jan 25, 2025	279	@ Idaho	L	69-72	39%
Feb 01, 2025	226	@ Northern Colorado	L	74-80	31%
Feb 03, 2025	179	@ Weber St.	L	67-75	24%
Feb 06, 2025	149	Montana St.	L	72-76	38%
Feb 08, 2025	190	Montana	L	72-74	44%
Feb 13, 2025	257	@ Portland St.	L	72-76	36%
Feb 15, 2025	300	@ Sacramento St.	L	67-69	44%
Feb 20, 2025	279	Idaho	W	72-69	58%
Feb 22, 2025	262	Eastern Washington	W	79-77	56%
Mar 01, 2025	226	Northern Colorado	W	77-76	51%
Mar 03, 2025	315	@ Idaho St.	L	68-69	48%
Projected Record						12 - 15	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.1		5.1	1st
2nd											0.2	1.1	2.3	2.1	0.9	0.2	0.0				6.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.7	3.3	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0					8.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.3	4.3	2.5	0.5	0.0							9.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.6	4.9	2.5	0.4	0.0								10.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.9	5.1	2.7	0.3	0.0									11.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.6	3.3	5.2	2.7	0.3	0.0										12.1	7th
8th				0.1	0.9	3.5	4.9	2.5	0.4	0.0											12.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.7	4.0	4.2	1.9	0.3	0.0												12.4	9th
10th	0.4	1.5	2.6	3.2	2.5	0.8	0.1	0.0													11.1	10th

Total	0.4	1.5	2.9	5.0	7.4	9.1	10.6	11.2	11.0	10.5	9.0	7.3	5.6	3.9	2.3	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
16-2	96.7%	0.7		0.6	0.1
15-3	85.7%	1.2		0.9	0.3	0.0
14-4	57.7%	1.3		0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	27.8%	1.1		0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	8.8%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0		0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.1%	5.1		3.1	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		51.7%	51.7%		12.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.2%		41.3%	41.3%		12.9													0.0	0.1	0.0			0.1
16-2	0.7%		36.5%	36.5%		13.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4
15-3	1.4%		31.2%	31.2%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.0
14-4	2.3%		23.8%	23.8%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.8
13-5	3.9%		18.1%	18.1%		14.8														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	3.2
12-6	5.6%		11.9%	11.9%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	4.9
11-7	7.3%		8.7%	8.7%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	6.7
10-8	9.0%		6.1%	6.1%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	8.4
9-9	10.5%		4.6%	4.6%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.4	10.0
8-10	11.0%		2.8%	2.8%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.7
7-11	11.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	11.0
6-12	10.6%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	10.5
5-13	9.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
4-14	7.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	7.4
3-15	5.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
2-16	2.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.9
1-17	1.5%																							1.5
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		4.9%	4.9%	0.0%	15.0												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.4	2.1	95.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%