Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#174
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#144
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#218
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 22.6% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 70.6% 88.9% 67.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.2% 90.6% 79.5%
Conference Champion 19.1% 30.3% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round14.6% 22.3% 13.2%
Second Round1.6% 3.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 83   @ Florida St. L 69-80 15%    
  Nov 08, 2024 12   @ Purdue L 62-81 4%    
  Nov 14, 2024 215   Nicholls St. W 72-67 68%    
  Nov 19, 2024 27   Cincinnati L 66-75 20%    
  Nov 27, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 72-78 29%    
  Nov 30, 2024 299   Bellarmine W 73-63 80%    
  Dec 03, 2024 131   @ Akron L 65-71 31%    
  Dec 07, 2024 360   @ IU Indianapolis W 75-63 85%    
  Dec 15, 2024 251   Norfolk St. W 73-66 72%    
  Dec 18, 2024 342   Detroit Mercy W 77-63 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 307   South Carolina St. W 77-67 81%    
  Dec 29, 2024 295   @ Robert Morris W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 01, 2025 180   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 04, 2025 310   Green Bay W 71-61 81%    
  Jan 08, 2025 198   @ Youngstown St. L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 146   Oakland W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 213   @ Cleveland St. L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 196   Wright St. W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 24, 2025 200   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 342   @ Detroit Mercy W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 146   @ Oakland L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 05, 2025 213   Cleveland St. W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 295   Robert Morris W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 14, 2025 310   @ Green Bay W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 16, 2025 200   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 21, 2025 196   @ Wright St. L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 23, 2025 360   IU Indianapolis W 78-60 93%    
  Feb 27, 2025 180   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 72-75 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 198   Youngstown St. W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.7 4.8 3.5 1.6 0.5 19.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.5 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.6 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.2 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.9 6.5 8.2 9.8 11.3 11.5 10.9 9.8 8.1 5.8 3.6 1.6 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 96.8% 3.5    3.2 0.3
17-3 83.6% 4.8    3.6 1.2 0.1
16-4 57.9% 4.7    2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 29.6% 2.9    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 12.6 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 72.0% 68.5% 3.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1%
19-1 1.6% 56.8% 55.7% 1.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.4%
18-2 3.6% 44.5% 44.3% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 0.2%
17-3 5.8% 37.4% 37.4% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 0.0%
16-4 8.1% 29.2% 29.2% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 5.8
15-5 9.8% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 7.5
14-6 10.9% 15.9% 15.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 9.2
13-7 11.5% 11.1% 11.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 10.2
12-8 11.3% 8.7% 8.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 10.3
11-9 9.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 9.1
10-10 8.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.8
9-11 6.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
8-12 4.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.9
7-13 3.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.4 4.0 3.3 1.8 85.0 0.0%