Preseason Rankings
San Jose St.
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#160
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.0#280
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 12.5
.500 or above 35.9% 40.0% 16.7%
.500 or above in Conference 24.9% 27.2% 14.3%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 13.1% 22.8%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 2.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 52 - 10
Quad 34 - 56 - 15
Quad 48 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 294   Western Illinois W 70-60 82%    
  Nov 08, 2024 314   Pacific W 75-67 78%    
  Nov 10, 2024 192   @ Hawaii L 67-68 45%    
  Nov 17, 2024 167   UC Santa Barbara W 72-69 61%    
  Nov 20, 2024 46   @ USC L 65-78 13%    
  Nov 25, 2024 152   UTEP L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 26, 2024 188   UNC Greensboro W 68-67 54%    
  Nov 27, 2024 245   Long Beach St. W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 04, 2024 70   @ New Mexico L 70-81 17%    
  Dec 14, 2024 345   Cal Poly W 74-59 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 176   Kennesaw St. W 80-76 63%    
  Dec 28, 2024 63   Boise St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 31, 2024 84   Colorado St. L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 95   @ UNLV L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 07, 2025 81   Utah St. L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 229   @ Air Force W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 70   New Mexico L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 75   @ Nevada L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 177   Wyoming W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 28, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 60-73 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 229   Air Force W 68-61 71%    
  Feb 04, 2025 250   @ Fresno St. W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 07, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 14, 2025 75   Nevada L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 19, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 177   @ Wyoming L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 95   UNLV L 66-69 41%    
  Mar 04, 2025 84   @ Colorado St. L 63-73 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 250   Fresno St. W 70-63 73%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.6 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.7 4.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.1 5.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 17.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.6 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.3 11th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.7 6.4 8.5 10.6 12.0 11.4 11.3 9.3 7.8 6.1 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 82.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 54.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 84.0% 50.4% 33.6% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.7%
17-3 0.2% 65.1% 26.3% 38.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 52.7%
16-4 0.6% 46.1% 22.6% 23.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 30.3%
15-5 1.1% 26.6% 16.0% 10.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 12.6%
14-6 1.8% 18.2% 12.7% 5.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 6.3%
13-7 3.0% 8.8% 7.0% 1.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.9%
12-8 4.4% 4.8% 4.4% 0.4% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.4%
11-9 6.1% 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8 0.1%
10-10 7.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0%
9-11 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
8-12 11.3% 0.6% 0.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
6-14 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 12.0
5-15 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-16 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-17 6.4% 6.4
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.9 0.5%