Preseason Rankings
St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-13.6#354
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#293
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-7.1#349
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#354
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 11.0% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 11.9% 35.1% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 65.7% 41.8%
Conference Champion 5.5% 13.3% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 16.7% 5.0% 16.8%
First Four4.9% 8.2% 4.9%
First Round2.1% 5.6% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 49 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 59   @ Dayton L 52-78 1%    
  Nov 08, 2024 43   @ Clemson L 55-82 1%    
  Nov 10, 2024 301   @ Campbell L 63-72 20%    
  Nov 12, 2024 67   @ Penn St. L 58-83 1%    
  Nov 16, 2024 270   @ Mount St. Mary's L 64-75 15%    
  Nov 23, 2024 101   @ Georgetown L 59-81 3%    
  Nov 26, 2024 264   Lehigh L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 01, 2024 269   Radford L 62-67 32%    
  Dec 14, 2024 308   @ Niagara L 64-73 22%    
  Dec 17, 2024 38   @ Maryland L 51-79 1%    
  Jan 03, 2025 304   Central Connecticut St. L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 05, 2025 356   Stonehill W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 10, 2025 362   Mercyhurst W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 12, 2025 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 16, 2025 352   @ LIU Brooklyn L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 20, 2025 285   @ Wagner L 54-65 19%    
  Jan 24, 2025 352   LIU Brooklyn W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 26, 2025 285   Wagner L 57-62 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 362   @ Mercyhurst W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 06, 2025 335   Le Moyne W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 332   @ Chicago St. L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 356   @ Stonehill L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 304   @ Central Connecticut St. L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 335   @ Le Moyne L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-74 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 332   Chicago St. L 65-66 49%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.3 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 5.0 5.1 1.3 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.5 5.3 1.4 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.3 2.2 5.5 5.0 1.1 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.1 3.6 0.8 0.1 13.5 8th
9th 0.5 1.8 3.2 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 9th
Total 0.5 1.8 4.0 6.5 9.2 11.0 12.5 12.4 11.6 10.0 7.7 5.7 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 95.9% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
13-3 73.8% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
12-4 44.2% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-5 15.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 68.0% 68.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 39.4% 39.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-2 0.9% 34.2% 34.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6
13-3 2.1% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 1.6
12-4 3.6% 20.9% 20.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8
11-5 5.7% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 0.9 4.8
10-6 7.7% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.8 6.9
9-7 10.0% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.6 9.3
8-8 11.6% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.5 11.1
7-9 12.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 12.1
6-10 12.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.3
5-11 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.0
4-12 9.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-13 6.5% 6.5
2-14 4.0% 4.0
1-15 1.8% 1.8
0-16 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.1 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%