Big Ten
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
Switch to Preseason Page


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Illinois 98%   2   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +21.8 3 A+ +14 1 A +8 12 -2 275 0 1
Michigan St. 97%   3   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +19.1 7 A +10 10 A +9 5 +5 83 0 1
Michigan 92%   3   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +16.8 15 A- +9 24 A +8 13 +7 60 0 1
UCLA 99%   1   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +16.7 18 A- +9 16 A- +7 20 +31 1 0 1
Nebraska 79%   6   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +15.9 23 A- +9 26 A- +7 22 0 158 0 1
Purdue 84%   5   Likely In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +14.5 28 A- +9 25 B+ +6 37 +5 84 0 1
USC 82%   6   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +14.2 30 B+ +7 40 A- +7 24 +4 96 0 1
Indiana 64%   9   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +13.9 33 A- +8 31 B+ +6 39 -3 288 0 1
Ohio St. 63%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +13.4 36 A- +9 12 B +4 72 +3 119 0 1
Maryland 59%   11   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.7 39 B+ +7 38 B+ +5 45 -1 254 0 1
Iowa 63%   10   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.3 42 B+ +6 49 B+ +6 38 +7 68 0 1
Wisconsin 65%   9   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.1 54 B +6 57 B+ +5 46 +6 75 0 1
Minnesota 35%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +10.4 57 B +5 74 B+ +6 41 0 241 0 1
Oregon 50%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +10.2 58 B+ +6 50 B +4 74 +7 67 0 1
Washington 32%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.8 78 B +5 67 B- +3 94 +7 62 0 1
Rutgers 12%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 89 B- +4 79 B- +3 90 0 164 0 1
Penn St. 8%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.5 93 B +5 76 C+ +2 109 -2 284 0 1
Northwestern 14%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.5 95 B- +4 82 B- +2 98 -2 273 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 8 Arizona 75 18 UCLA 84   
9 Gonzaga 78 28 Purdue 72   
24 BYU 94 36 Ohio St. 83   
15 Michigan 84 203 Oakland 68   
220 Denver 68 54 Wisconsin 75   
7 Michigan St. 96 239 Quinnipiac 59   
347 Fairleigh Dickinson 45 3 Illinois 120   
259 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 63 30 USC 95   
208 Montana 69 58 Oregon 87   
324 Le Moyne 64 23 Nebraska 106   
206 Colgate 76 78 Washington 90   
338 Bucknell 67 39 Maryland 96   
355 Eastern Illinois 57 33 Indiana 91   
57 Minnesota 85 325 North Dakota 50   
346 Binghamton 60 95 Northwestern 86   
351 Canisius 57 93 Penn St. 97   
Tue, Nov 3 42 Iowa 76 209 Lipscomb 54   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 3 Illinois 88 128 Penn 65 97%   
7 Michigan St. 82 154 Toledo 60 97%   
311 Bellarmine 58 33 Indiana 84 98%   
262 Chattanooga 66 93 Penn St. 81 91%   
Fri, Nov 6 15 Michigan 70 5 Connecticut 73 62%   
28 Purdue 75 144 Valparaiso 58 93%   
57 Minnesota 74 138 St. Thomas 62 88%   
160 Eastern Washington 66 58 Oregon 79 89%   
36 Ohio St. 82 224 Youngstown St. 62 96%   
293 North Florida 60 18 UCLA 87 99%   
258 Delaware 59 54 Wisconsin 79 96%   
95 Northwestern 75 223 Stony Brook 62 89%   
355 Eastern Illinois 49 42 Iowa 77 99%   
345 New Haven 55 89 Rutgers 76 97%   
Sat, Nov 7 23 Nebraska 77 38 Providence 74 62%   
69 Georgetown 69 39 Maryland 70 54%   
Sun, Nov 8 30 USC 77 87 Wichita St. 70 75%   
93 Penn St. 71 74 Pittsburgh 73 57%   
Mon, Nov 9 32 Cincinnati 69 57 Minnesota 62 74%   
33 Indiana 74 71 Syracuse 68 70%   
111 Illinois St. 62 28 Purdue 76 90%   
184 Marshall 65 36 Ohio St. 84 95%   
287 Boston University 59 95 Northwestern 76 93%   
365 Mississippi Valley 54 78 Washington 86 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Illinois 3 36% 24% 9% 3% 36 19 12 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Michigan St. 5 20% 12% 6% 3% 20 16 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
UCLA 6 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0
Michigan 6 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0
Purdue 7 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1
Nebraska 7 9% 4% 3% 2% 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0
USC 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1
Indiana 8 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1
Ohio St. 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1
Maryland 9 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2
Iowa 9 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 2
Wisconsin 9 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2
Oregon 11 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
Minnesota 11 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4
Washington 13 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 10
Rutgers 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 10 12 14 15
Northwestern 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 14 15
Penn St. 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 11 12 14 16

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois 14 - 6 24 - 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 16 16 14 9 5 2 0
Michigan St. 13 - 7 23 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 14 15 15 12 8 5 2 1 0
UCLA 12 - 8 22 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Michigan 12 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Purdue 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 9 12 14 13 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Nebraska 11 - 9 22 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
USC 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 14 14 11 9 6 3 1 1 0 0
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Ohio St. 10 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 12 15 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Maryland 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Iowa 10 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 13 10 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 18 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Oregon 9 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 14 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Minnesota 9 - 11 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Washington 7 - 13 14 - 15 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rutgers 7 - 13 15 - 15 0 1 3 6 10 13 14 14 12 9 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
Northwestern 7 - 13 15 - 17 0 1 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Penn St. 7 - 13 16 - 15 0 1 3 7 11 13 15 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Illinois 98% 20% 98% 2 Likely In 18 25 16 11 9 6 4 3 2 2 2 2
Michigan St. 97% 15% 97% 3 Likely In 15 19 16 12 9 8 6 4 3 2 3 1 3
Michigan 92% 10% 91% 3 Likely In 11 14 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 5 1 8
UCLA 99% 10% 99% 1 Likely In 34 8 10 11 8 7 6 5 4 4 1 1 1
Nebraska 79% 7% 77% 6 Bubble - In 2 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 5 7 11 1 21
Purdue 84% 8% 83% 5 Likely In 5 8 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 8 1 16
USC 82% 7% 80% 6 Likely In 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 11 2 18
Indiana 64% 5% 63% 9 Bubble - In 1 3 4 4 7 6 6 7 6 8 12 1 36
Ohio St. 63% 4% 61% 10 Bubble - In 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 14 2 37
Maryland 59% 4% 57% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 7 12 2 41
Iowa 63% 3% 62% 10 Bubble - In 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 7 13 3 37
Wisconsin 65% 3% 63% 9 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 11 3 35
Minnesota 35% 2% 34% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 11 2 65
Oregon 50% 2% 49% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 12 4 50
Washington 32% 1% 31% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 9 3 68
Rutgers 12% 1% 12% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 2 5 1 88
Penn St. 8% 0% 8% Likely Out 0 1 1 1 4 1 92
Northwestern 14% 0% 14% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 1 2 6 1 86

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 10.9 0 0 2 9 23 32 23 9 1
1st Round 100% 9.8 0 0 3 11 25 31 21 8 1 0
2nd Round 100% 6.7 0 0 1 4 13 25 28 19 8 2 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 100% 3.6 0 4 15 28 28 17 6 1 0 0 0
Elite Eight 91% 1.9 9 29 36 19 5 1 0
Final Four 68% 0.9 32 45 20 3 0
Final Game 42% 0.5 58 37 5
Champion 24% 0.2 76 24

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois 98% 3% 97% 83% 54% 32% 18% 10% 6%
Michigan St. 97% 5% 95% 77% 48% 27% 15% 8% 4%
Michigan 92% 7% 89% 68% 39% 21% 11% 6% 3%
UCLA 99% 1% 98% 76% 43% 22% 11% 6% 3%
Nebraska 79% 17% 71% 48% 25% 12% 6% 3% 2%
Purdue 84% 11% 79% 56% 30% 16% 8% 4% 2%
USC 82% 16% 74% 49% 25% 13% 6% 3% 1%
Indiana 64% 19% 55% 34% 16% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Ohio St. 63% 20% 53% 32% 14% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Maryland 59% 19% 49% 29% 13% 6% 3% 1% 1%
Iowa 63% 19% 53% 30% 13% 6% 3% 1%
Wisconsin 65% 17% 56% 33% 16% 7% 3% 2% 1%
Minnesota 35% 16% 26% 14% 5% 2% 1%
Oregon 50% 18% 41% 22% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Washington 32% 14% 24% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Rutgers 12% 7% 9% 4% 1% 1%
Penn St. 8% 5% 5% 2% 1%
Northwestern 14% 8% 10% 4% 2% 1%