Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
16 Purdue 100.0%   5   25 - 7 14 - 4 25 - 7 14 - 4 +17.6      +8.4 28 +9.2 11 70.9 96 +16.7 20 +17.4 1
21 Michigan 100.0%   7   24 - 11 10 - 8 24 - 11 10 - 8 +16.4      +12.3 7 +4.1 69 58.0 343 +14.2 32 +11.5 7
23 Wisconsin 100.0%   7   25 - 9 12 - 6 25 - 9 12 - 6 +15.7      +6.1 40 +9.6 8 59.2 336 +15.7 23 +14.3 2
32 Minnesota 100.0%   6   24 - 9 11 - 7 24 - 9 11 - 7 +12.6      +3.4 84 +9.3 10 72.8 64 +14.3 30 +13.1 4
38 Indiana 15.0%   18 - 15 7 - 11 18 - 15 7 - 11 +11.6      +9.0 22 +2.6 93 68.4 158 +9.8 56 +8.4 10
40 Northwestern 93.7%   10   23 - 11 10 - 8 23 - 11 10 - 8 +11.4      +4.5 63 +7.0 30 63.4 279 +12.7 35 +11.4 8
43 Maryland 99.7%   7   23 - 8 12 - 6 23 - 8 12 - 6 +11.4      +6.7 37 +4.7 63 66.6 212 +14.3 31 +14.1 3
44 Michigan St. 94.0%   9   19 - 14 10 - 8 19 - 14 10 - 8 +11.4      +5.6 53 +5.8 48 63.6 276 +11.3 45 +12.1 5
64 Illinois 26.6%   17 - 14 8 - 10 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.5      +2.6 98 +5.9 46 64.3 263 +9.4 59 +9.2 9
65 Iowa 25.1%   18 - 14 10 - 8 18 - 14 10 - 8 +8.4      +6.0 43 +2.4 98 74.6 43 +9.1 61 +11.7 6
71 Ohio St. 1.0%   17 - 15 7 - 11 17 - 15 7 - 11 +7.8      +5.5 54 +2.3 105 66.6 213 +7.5 74 +8.1 11
79 Penn St. 0.0%   15 - 18 6 - 12 15 - 18 6 - 12 +6.3      +0.1 163 +6.2 39 74.4 44 +6.2 84 +6.5 13
99 Nebraska 0.0%   11 - 19 6 - 12 11 - 19 6 - 12 +4.4      +0.6 153 +3.8 72 68.0 172 +5.6 93 +6.8 12
116 Rutgers 0.0%   14 - 18 3 - 15 14 - 18 3 - 15 +2.8      -2.0 220 +4.8 61 65.5 235 +4.4 103 +1.3 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 1.0 100.0
Michigan 5.0 100.0
Wisconsin 2.0 100.0
Minnesota 4.0 100.0
Indiana 10.0 100.0
Northwestern 5.0 100.0
Maryland 2.0 100.0
Michigan St. 5.0 100.0
Illinois 9.0 100.0
Iowa 5.0 100.0
Ohio St. 10.0 100.0
Penn St. 12.0 100.0
Nebraska 12.0 100.0
Rutgers 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Purdue 14 - 4 100.0
Michigan 10 - 8 100.0
Wisconsin 12 - 6 100.0
Minnesota 11 - 7 100.0
Indiana 7 - 11 100.0
Northwestern 10 - 8 100.0
Maryland 12 - 6 100.0
Michigan St. 10 - 8 100.0
Illinois 8 - 10 100.0
Iowa 10 - 8 100.0
Ohio St. 7 - 11 100.0
Penn St. 6 - 12 100.0
Nebraska 6 - 12 100.0
Rutgers 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 100.0% 100.0
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Indiana
Northwestern
Maryland
Michigan St.
Illinois
Iowa
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Nebraska
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.2 5.6 22.9 45.5 23.8 1.9 0.0 100.0%
Michigan 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7   0.0 0.1 4.3 36.6 52.1 6.7 0.2
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 7   0.0 0.3 4.6 31.8 53.2 9.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Minnesota 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.1 0.7 11.6 57.4 28.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Indiana 15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.2 6.3 8.6 0.0 85.0 15.0%
Northwestern 93.7% 0.0% 93.7% 10   0.1 1.9 14.3 27.2 34.9 15.1 0.3 6.3 93.7%
Maryland 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 7   0.0 0.0 1.0 19.5 53.4 22.0 3.5 0.2 0.3 99.7%
Michigan St. 94.0% 0.0% 94.0% 9   0.1 3.3 24.4 35.9 25.8 4.4 0.0 6.0 94.0%
Illinois 26.6% 0.0% 26.6% 0.0 0.3 3.0 17.8 5.5 73.4 26.6%
Iowa 25.1% 0.0% 25.1% 0.0 0.1 1.0 15.0 9.1 74.9 25.1%
Ohio St. 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 99.0 1.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79.5% 44.3% 20.0% 9.5% 4.2% 1.7%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 67.7% 29.5% 14.0% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.0% 25.9% 11.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Minnesota 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 54.4% 17.6% 5.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Indiana 15.0% 14.4% 8.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 93.7% 5.5% 90.8% 39.2% 8.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Maryland 99.7% 0.0% 99.7% 47.1% 11.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Michigan St. 94.0% 1.0% 93.5% 41.2% 8.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Illinois 26.6% 19.4% 14.7% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 25.1% 21.9% 11.4% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.6 0.1 4.1 45.6 41.6 8.2 0.4
1st Round 100.0% 7.2 0.2 9.5 63.8 24.7 1.8 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.0 0.1 1.4 7.8 22.7 33.0 24.8 9.0 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 83.4% 1.5 16.7 37.2 30.6 12.5 2.7 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 48.5% 0.6 51.5 38.0 9.5 1.0 0.0
Final Four 21.8% 0.2 78.2 20.4 1.3 0.0
Final Game 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.1
Champion 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4