IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.4	#143
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#107
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.3	#156

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.1	#131

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.1%	26.9%	14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	2.2%	0.4%
Average Seed	13.8	12.7	14.1

.500 or above	61.9%	83.7%	58.6%
.500 or above in Conference	82.2%	90.9%	80.8%
Conference Champion	19.5%	30.0%	17.9%
Last Place in Conference	1.0%	0.1%	1.1%

First Four	1.7%	1.6%	1.7%
First Round	15.3%	25.9%	13.7%
Second Round	2.4%	5.3%	1.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.2 - 2.0	0.2 - 2.0
Quad 1b	0.4 - 2.1	0.6 - 4.0
Quad 2	1.1 - 2.7	1.7 - 6.7
Quad 3	3.3 - 3.7	5.0 - 10.4
Quad 4	9.8 - 2.8	14.8 - 13.2

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	43	@ Arizona St.	L	75-84	13%
Nov 15, 2018	55	Central Florida	L	62-70	25%
Nov 16, 2018	115	Wake Forest	L	74-76	42%
Nov 18, 2018	183	Monmouth	W	75-73	59%
Nov 21, 2018	156	@ Hofstra	W	77-76	42%
Nov 24, 2018	257	@ Sacramento St.	W	74-67	63%
Dec 05, 2018	165	Loyola Marymount	W	75-73	65%
Dec 10, 2018	59	@ St. Mary's	L	66-73	18%
Dec 16, 2018	137	@ San Francisco	L	69-70	37%
Dec 22, 2018	35	@ Nebraska	L	68-78	13%
Dec 29, 2018	241	Portland	W	74-68	78%
Jan 01, 2019	42	@ Washington	L	70-79	16%
Jan 09, 2019	201	@ Hawaii	W	72-68	52%
Jan 12, 2019	90	UC Irvine	L	68-72	47%
Jan 17, 2019	282	UC Riverside	W	74-66	82%
Jan 19, 2019	189	@ Long Beach St.	W	79-76	48%
Jan 24, 2019	177	UC Santa Barbara	W	73-71	67%
Jan 26, 2019	317	@ Cal Poly	W	76-65	75%
Jan 30, 2019	342	Cal St. Northridge	W	77-62	94%
Feb 06, 2019	90	@ UC Irvine	L	68-72	28%
Feb 09, 2019	282	@ UC Riverside	W	74-66	65%
Feb 13, 2019	189	Long Beach St.	W	79-76	68%
Feb 16, 2019	342	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	77-62	85%
Feb 21, 2019	131	UC Davis	L	69-70	56%
Feb 23, 2019	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	W	73-71	47%
Feb 28, 2019	317	Cal Poly	W	76-65	87%
Mar 02, 2019	131	@ UC Davis	L	69-70	37%
Mar 09, 2019	201	Hawaii	W	72-68	71%
Projected Record						14.8 - 13.2	10.1 - 5.9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.0	1.0	3.0	5.8	5.5	3.2	0.9		19.5	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	2.0	6.8	7.6	3.7	0.6				20.9	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.4	2.8	6.8	5.7	1.7	0.1					17.5	3rd
4th							0.0	0.4	3.4	6.0	4.0	0.7	0.0						14.5	4th
5th						0.0	0.7	2.6	5.4	2.8	0.4	0.0							11.9	5th
6th					0.0	0.7	2.5	3.6	1.3	0.2									8.3	6th
7th				0.2	0.6	1.7	1.6	0.6	0.1										4.8	7th
8th			0.1	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0											2.1	8th
9th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.4	9th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.6	3.1	5.0	7.3	10.6	12.0	13.2	14.3	12.3	9.7	6.1	3.2	0.9			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
15-1	100.0%	3.2		3.1	0.1
14-2	89.6%	5.5		4.2	1.3	0.0
13-3	60.2%	5.8		3.4	2.1	0.4	0.0
12-4	24.6%	3.0		0.9	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.0
11-5	7.3%	1.0		0.1	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0
10-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0			0.0				0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	19.5%	19.5		12.6	5.2	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.9%		65.7%	58.7%	7.1%	10.4			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3		17.1%
15-1	3.2%		61.5%	54.4%	7.1%	11.9						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.2		15.6%
14-2	6.1%		43.0%	40.5%	2.4%	12.9									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.0	3.5		4.1%
13-3	9.7%		27.4%	26.8%	0.6%	13.7											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.2	7.0		0.8%
12-4	12.3%		23.1%	23.0%	0.1%	14.3											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.4	9.5		0.2%
11-5	14.3%		17.5%	17.5%		14.6												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.8	0.6	11.8
10-6	13.2%		10.5%	10.5%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	11.8
9-7	12.0%		7.4%	7.4%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	11.1
8-8	10.6%		3.9%	3.9%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	10.2
7-9	7.3%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.1
6-10	5.0%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																0.0	0.1	4.9
5-11	3.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
4-12	1.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
3-13	0.7%																							0.7
2-14	0.2%																							0.2
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.1%	15.5%	0.5%	13.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.9	2.9	3.4	3.3	3.1	83.9		0.6%