Preseason Rankings
Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#221
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#193
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#244
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#205
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.0% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 35.0% 47.8% 24.1%
.500 or above in Conference 39.7% 47.3% 33.4%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.8% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.0% 9.8% 17.6%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round2.9% 3.7% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.70.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.10.1 - 1.8
Quad 20.5 - 2.80.6 - 4.6
Quad 33.2 - 6.73.8 - 11.2
Quad 48.0 - 5.011.8 - 16.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 254   @ Campbell W 73-71 46%    
  Nov 13, 2018 195   @ Tulane L 71-73 34%    
  Nov 16, 2018 291   Manhattan W 68-64 63%    
  Nov 17, 2018 294   UNC Asheville W 72-68 64%    
  Nov 18, 2018 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 68-74 21%    
  Nov 30, 2018 61   @ South Carolina L 63-75 9%    
  Dec 05, 2018 240   Hampton W 75-74 64%    
  Dec 09, 2018 97   @ Wofford L 67-75 17%    
  Dec 16, 2018 302   NC Central W 68-64 74%    
  Dec 21, 2018 112   @ College of Charleston L 64-71 20%    
  Jan 03, 2019 192   @ Troy L 70-72 34%    
  Jan 05, 2019 150   @ South Alabama L 70-74 26%    
  Jan 10, 2019 203   Texas St. L 64-65 56%    
  Jan 12, 2019 256   Texas Arlington W 75-73 66%    
  Jan 19, 2019 175   Appalachian St. L 72-75 51%    
  Jan 24, 2019 264   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 67-65 47%    
  Jan 26, 2019 286   @ Arkansas St. W 75-72 50%    
  Jan 31, 2019 210   Louisiana Monroe L 67-68 58%    
  Feb 02, 2019 100   Louisiana L 70-78 34%    
  Feb 07, 2019 256   @ Texas Arlington W 75-73 46%    
  Feb 09, 2019 203   @ Texas St. L 64-65 37%    
  Feb 16, 2019 175   @ Appalachian St. L 72-75 31%    
  Feb 21, 2019 148   Georgia Southern L 69-74 45%    
  Feb 23, 2019 85   Georgia St. L 66-75 30%    
  Feb 28, 2019 100   @ Louisiana L 70-78 19%    
  Mar 02, 2019 210   @ Louisiana Monroe L 67-68 39%    
  Mar 07, 2019 150   South Alabama L 70-74 45%    
  Mar 09, 2019 192   Troy L 70-72 53%    
Projected Record 11.8 - 16.2 7.7 - 10.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 1.3 0.2 7.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.6 2.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.9 0.8 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 10.8 11th
12th 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 8.9 12th
Total 0.5 1.8 3.0 5.5 7.4 9.7 10.2 11.2 10.9 10.6 9.1 6.3 5.6 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 99.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 94.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 71.9% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.2% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 97.0% 90.9% 6.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
17-1 0.2% 53.2% 35.3% 18.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 27.7%
16-2 0.6% 43.0% 41.7% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4%
15-3 1.2% 19.8% 19.6% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3%
14-4 2.7% 13.8% 13.7% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.1%
13-5 3.6% 11.9% 11.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.2 0.0%
12-6 5.6% 9.2% 9.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.0
11-7 6.3% 4.4% 4.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.0
10-8 9.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.7
9-9 10.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3
8-10 10.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
7-11 11.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.0
6-12 10.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.7
4-14 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 96.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%