IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.7	#141
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.3	#223
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.4	#126

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.4	#153

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.5%	14.9%	6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	4.2%	0.7%
Average Seed	22.7	11.4	13.1

.500 or above	70.1%	86.0%	65.2%
.500 or above in Conference	77.9%	76.9%	78.2%
Conference Champion	9.8%	16.0%	7.9%
Last Place in Conference	1.8%	0.8%	2.1%

First Four	1.0%	2.0%	0.7%
First Round	7.7%	14.0%	5.8%
Second Round	1.7%	3.6%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	1.0%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 0.9	0.1 - 0.9
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.1	0.3 - 2.0
Quad 2	1.2 - 2.8	1.5 - 4.9
Quad 3	5.3 - 5.0	6.8 - 9.9
Quad 4	10.0 - 2.3	16.8 - 12.2

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	81	@ Wichita St.	L	71-75	24%
Nov 11, 2018	258	Sam Houston St.	W	72-65	83%
Nov 16, 2018	46	@ LSU	L	70-78	15%
Nov 24, 2018	86	UNC Greensboro	L	65-69	36%
Nov 26, 2018	239	@ Delaware	W	72-66	61%
Dec 01, 2018	312	Houston Baptist	W	84-73	88%
Dec 04, 2018	297	Prairie View	W	79-70	86%
Dec 07, 2018	105	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	72-74	32%
Dec 11, 2018	344	Mississippi Valley	W	80-64	95%
Dec 15, 2018	100	@ Louisiana	L	73-76	31%
Dec 22, 2018	309	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	74-64	87%
Dec 29, 2018	163	Southern Miss	W	71-69	65%
Jan 03, 2019	132	@ North Texas	L	70-71	38%
Jan 05, 2019	323	@ Rice	W	76-64	76%
Jan 10, 2019	187	UAB	W	72-69	69%
Jan 12, 2019	157	Middle Tennessee	W	69-68	64%
Jan 17, 2019	102	@ Old Dominion	L	64-66	32%
Jan 19, 2019	301	@ Charlotte	W	80-70	71%
Jan 24, 2019	99	Marshall	L	78-81	49%
Jan 26, 2019	60	Western Kentucky	L	71-78	37%
Jan 31, 2019	266	@ Florida Atlantic	W	75-67	65%
Feb 02, 2019	226	@ Florida International	W	74-68	58%
Feb 09, 2019	163	@ Southern Miss	W	71-69	46%
Feb 14, 2019	249	UTEP	W	73-66	78%
Feb 16, 2019	158	Texas San Antonio	W	76-75	64%
Feb 23, 2019	132	North Texas	L	70-71	57%
Feb 28, 2019	99	Marshall	L	78-81	51%
Mar 03, 2019	226	@ Florida International	W	74-68	59%
Mar 06, 2019	266	@ Florida Atlantic	W	75-67	65%
Projected Record						16.8 - 12.2	10.4 - 7.6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.5	1.7		2.3	1st
2nd												0.1	1.0	3.5	3.9		8.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	1.1	3.9	4.5	1.6		11.1	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	3.5	4.6	1.4	0.1		10.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.7	4.6	1.4	0.1	0.0		10.4	5th
6th									0.4	2.6	4.7	1.6	0.2	0.0			9.5	6th
7th								0.2	1.9	4.3	2.3	0.2	0.0				8.9	7th
8th							0.0	1.2	3.6	2.0	0.3	0.0					7.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.7	2.7	2.6	0.5	0.0						6.5	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	2.1	2.1	0.6	0.0							5.1	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	1.2	1.6	0.7	0.1								3.8	11th
12th			0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.1									2.9	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0									1.8	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0											0.9	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.8	3.0	5.2	6.9	9.2	10.1	12.1	11.1	11.1	10.0	7.3			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	22.7%	1.7		0.5	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-1	5.5%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-2	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-3	0.0%
10-4	0.0%
9-5	0.0%
8-6	0.0%
7-7	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		0.6	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	7.3%		15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	12.8											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	6.1		1.6%
13-1	10.0%		11.0%	10.8%	0.2%	13.1												0.1	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	8.9		0.2%
12-2	11.1%		8.2%	8.0%	0.2%	14.0												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	10.2		0.3%
11-3	11.1%		5.3%	5.3%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	10.5
10-4	12.1%		3.2%	3.2%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	11.7
9-5	10.1%		2.1%	2.1%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.9
8-6	9.2%		1.2%	1.2%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	9.1
7-7	6.9%		0.4%	0.4%		15.9																0.0	0.0	6.9
6-8	5.2%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	5.2
5-9	3.0%		0.1%	0.1%		15.8																0.0	0.0	3.0
4-10	1.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
3-11	1.1%																							1.1
2-12	0.5%																							0.5
1-13	0.1%																							0.1
0-14	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		4.5%	4.4%	0.1%	13.8											0.0	0.1	0.7	1.2	1.1	0.8	0.5	95.5		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.0	1.7	46.6	3.4	48.3