Preseason Rankings
North Texas
Conference USA
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#132
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#277
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 12.2% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 2.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 26.0 12.5 13.8
.500 or above 85.0% 89.6% 71.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 76.9% 78.6%
Conference Champion 14.1% 16.2% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
First Round9.9% 11.4% 5.7%
Second Round2.3% 2.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Neutral) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.60.1 - 0.6
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.80.2 - 1.3
Quad 21.0 - 2.31.3 - 3.6
Quad 35.4 - 4.36.7 - 8.0
Quad 411.2 - 2.217.9 - 10.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 241   Portland W 74-67 74%    
  Nov 11, 2018 201   @ Hawaii W 72-67 56%    
  Nov 17, 2018 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 76-60 96%    
  Nov 20, 2018 327   Maine W 79-65 93%    
  Nov 24, 2018 178   St. Peter's W 64-61 71%    
  Nov 27, 2018 53   @ Oklahoma L 76-83 20%    
  Dec 05, 2018 161   @ Indiana St. W 72-70 47%    
  Dec 08, 2018 256   Texas Arlington W 78-70 83%    
  Dec 18, 2018 92   @ New Mexico L 75-78 32%    
  Dec 20, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-62 93%    
  Dec 29, 2018 323   @ Rice W 76-64 79%    
  Jan 03, 2019 141   Louisiana Tech W 71-70 62%    
  Jan 05, 2019 163   Southern Miss W 71-68 68%    
  Jan 10, 2019 249   @ UTEP W 73-65 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 158   @ Texas San Antonio W 76-74 47%    
  Jan 19, 2019 323   Rice W 76-64 90%    
  Jan 24, 2019 187   UAB W 72-68 72%    
  Jan 26, 2019 157   Middle Tennessee W 69-67 66%    
  Jan 31, 2019 102   @ Old Dominion L 64-66 36%    
  Feb 02, 2019 301   @ Charlotte W 80-70 73%    
  Feb 07, 2019 99   Marshall L 78-80 53%    
  Feb 09, 2019 60   Western Kentucky L 71-77 40%    
  Feb 14, 2019 266   @ Florida Atlantic W 74-66 68%    
  Feb 16, 2019 226   @ Florida International W 74-68 61%    
  Feb 23, 2019 141   @ Louisiana Tech W 71-70 43%    
  Feb 28, 2019 266   Florida Atlantic W 74-66 84%    
  Mar 03, 2019 99   Marshall L 78-80 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 226   @ Florida International W 74-68 61%    
Projected Record 17.9 - 10.1 11.2 - 6.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.4 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.4 5.3 2.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.8 4.7 1.6 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 4.1 1.7 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.8 1.9 0.2 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.9 0.4 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.8 4.8 7.0 9.1 11.0 11.8 12.0 11.8 9.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 24.1% 2.4    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-1 6.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-2 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-3 0.0%
10-4 0.0%
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 9.8% 16.6% 16.3% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.2 0.4%
13-1 11.8% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 0.0%
12-2 12.0% 7.1% 7.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 11.2
11-3 11.8% 5.4% 5.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.2
10-4 11.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.6
9-5 9.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.9
8-6 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
7-7 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
6-8 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-9 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-10 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-11 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 0.9 1.4 14.4 29.3 15.8 37.8 0.5