Preseason Rankings
Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#71
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.6#337
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 2.0% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.2% 2.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 31.9% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.7% 14.1% 4.7%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 11.9
.500 or above 88.6% 89.4% 67.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 87.7% 71.5%
Conference Champion 29.1% 29.7% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 3.6%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 3.1%
First Round29.4% 30.0% 13.3%
Second Round12.3% 12.7% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 4.6% 1.2%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.6% 0.4%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.4 - 1.80.4 - 1.8
Quad 1b0.8 - 1.51.3 - 3.3
Quad 22.6 - 2.73.9 - 6.0
Quad 36.8 - 3.010.6 - 9.0
Quad 410.3 - 1.120.9 - 10.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-62 96%    
  Nov 10, 2018 192   Troy W 72-63 87%    
  Nov 13, 2018 340   North Alabama W 75-54 98%    
  Nov 17, 2018 52   @ Seton Hall L 68-70 32%    
  Nov 21, 2018 167   Pittsburgh W 67-59 74%    
  Nov 24, 2018 303   Central Arkansas W 79-64 95%    
  Dec 01, 2018 33   Butler L 65-69 48%    
  Dec 05, 2018 104   @ Southern Illinois W 67-64 51%    
  Dec 09, 2018 82   Oregon St. W 66-65 65%    
  Dec 16, 2018 37   @ Houston L 66-70 29%    
  Dec 19, 2018 302   NC Central W 70-55 94%    
  Dec 22, 2018 15   Florida St. L 68-75 28%    
  Dec 30, 2018 175   Appalachian St. W 73-65 83%    
  Jan 06, 2019 103   Rhode Island W 68-65 70%    
  Jan 09, 2019 154   Massachusetts W 70-63 79%    
  Jan 12, 2019 166   @ La Salle W 72-64 64%    
  Jan 15, 2019 267   @ Fordham W 69-56 81%    
  Jan 18, 2019 106   Saint Joseph's W 70-67 70%    
  Jan 23, 2019 182   @ Duquesne W 70-62 68%    
  Jan 26, 2019 88   Davidson W 66-64 66%    
  Jan 30, 2019 130   Richmond W 71-66 74%    
  Feb 02, 2019 103   @ Rhode Island W 68-65 51%    
  Feb 05, 2019 107   Dayton W 68-64 70%    
  Feb 08, 2019 106   @ Saint Joseph's W 70-67 50%    
  Feb 13, 2019 208   @ George Washington W 69-59 72%    
  Feb 16, 2019 166   La Salle W 72-64 81%    
  Feb 23, 2019 107   @ Dayton W 68-64 50%    
  Feb 26, 2019 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 71-66 56%    
  Mar 02, 2019 129   George Mason W 71-66 73%    
  Mar 06, 2019 182   Duquesne W 70-62 82%    
  Mar 09, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 70-66 53%    
Projected Record 20.9 - 10.1 12.1 - 5.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.9 7.7 7.5 4.1 1.6 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.6 5.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 4.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.8 0.1 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.5 4.8 6.9 8.5 10.8 12.4 12.5 12.4 10.0 8.0 4.1 1.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.3% 4.1    3.9 0.2
16-2 93.8% 7.5    6.5 1.0 0.0
15-3 76.7% 7.7    4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 47.9% 5.9    2.5 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.7% 2.1    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 19.8 6.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 98.9% 60.1% 38.8% 4.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
17-1 4.1% 90.3% 49.9% 40.4% 6.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 80.7%
16-2 8.0% 78.1% 42.8% 35.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 61.6%
15-3 10.0% 59.8% 30.9% 28.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.0 41.9%
14-4 12.4% 42.4% 27.1% 15.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.1 21.0%
13-5 12.5% 25.3% 19.9% 5.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.3 6.8%
12-6 12.4% 18.0% 15.9% 2.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.2 2.4%
11-7 10.8% 12.5% 11.1% 1.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.4 1.6%
10-8 8.5% 9.1% 8.9% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.7 0.2%
9-9 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.4 0.0%
8-10 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6
7-11 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
6-12 2.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9
5-13 1.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 31.2% 20.3% 11.0% 10.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.2 3.6 6.2 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 68.8 13.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 40.7 21.7 36.9 0.7