Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#256
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.0#18
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#292
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.6% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 13.8% 25.9% 8.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.0% 39.9% 24.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.9% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.5% 13.1% 23.5%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round1.4% 2.4% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 29.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 2.50.0 - 2.5
Quad 1b0.1 - 2.00.1 - 4.5
Quad 20.4 - 3.60.5 - 8.2
Quad 32.4 - 6.92.9 - 15.0
Quad 47.0 - 5.19.9 - 20.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 116   Northern Iowa L 63-72 29%    
  Nov 16, 2018 309   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-70 72%    
  Nov 18, 2018 131   UC Davis L 68-76 32%    
  Nov 20, 2018 25   @ Indiana L 66-84 3%    
  Nov 23, 2018 94   @ Arkansas L 72-83 11%    
  Nov 27, 2018 98   @ Tulsa L 70-80 13%    
  Dec 01, 2018 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-79 71%    
  Dec 04, 2018 51   @ Missouri L 64-79 6%    
  Dec 08, 2018 132   @ North Texas L 70-78 17%    
  Dec 18, 2018 5   @ Gonzaga L 66-90 1%    
  Dec 21, 2018 317   @ Cal Poly W 75-71 52%    
  Dec 28, 2018 26   @ Texas L 62-80 4%    
  Jan 03, 2019 85   Georgia St. L 68-79 24%    
  Jan 05, 2019 148   Georgia Southern L 72-79 38%    
  Jan 10, 2019 175   @ Appalachian St. L 75-80 26%    
  Jan 12, 2019 221   @ Coastal Carolina L 73-75 34%    
  Jan 17, 2019 286   Arkansas St. W 78-77 64%    
  Jan 19, 2019 264   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-69 62%    
  Jan 24, 2019 148   @ Georgia Southern L 72-79 21%    
  Jan 26, 2019 85   @ Georgia St. L 68-79 12%    
  Feb 02, 2019 203   @ Texas St. L 66-69 31%    
  Feb 07, 2019 221   Coastal Carolina L 73-75 54%    
  Feb 09, 2019 175   Appalachian St. L 75-80 44%    
  Feb 14, 2019 264   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 70-69 41%    
  Feb 16, 2019 286   @ Arkansas St. W 78-77 45%    
  Feb 21, 2019 100   Louisiana L 73-83 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 210   Louisiana Monroe L 70-72 53%    
  Feb 28, 2019 150   @ South Alabama L 73-79 22%    
  Mar 02, 2019 192   @ Troy L 73-77 29%    
  Mar 09, 2019 203   Texas St. L 66-69 50%    
Projected Record 9.9 - 20.1 6.8 - 11.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.5 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.5 2.2 0.3 9.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 4.9 2.5 0.3 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 13.4 11th
12th 0.8 2.1 4.0 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.2 12th
Total 0.8 2.1 4.8 7.4 10.0 11.8 12.0 11.6 10.5 8.8 7.4 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 99.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 70.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 21.9% 3.4% 18.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 19.1%
16-2 0.2% 25.8% 19.4% 6.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.0%
15-3 0.5% 17.4% 17.1% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3%
14-4 1.1% 11.2% 11.1% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.2%
13-5 2.2% 11.2% 11.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-6 3.5% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.3 0.0%
11-7 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.0
10-8 7.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.2
9-9 8.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 8.7
8-10 10.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
7-11 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
6-12 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
5-13 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.7
4-14 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
3-15 7.4% 7.4
2-16 4.8% 4.8
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%