Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#290
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 16.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 1.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 13.2
.500 or above 81.9% 87.0% 65.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 85.1% 74.0%
Conference Champion 18.3% 20.3% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.2% 3.3%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round14.5% 16.3% 8.3%
Second Round3.2% 3.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Away) - 76.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 22 - 5
Quad 35 - 36 - 8
Quad 410 - 216 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 291   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-60 77%    
  Nov 16, 2019 37   @ Creighton L 66-77 16%    
  Nov 19, 2019 353   Mississippi Valley W 82-58 99%    
  Nov 22, 2019 313   North Alabama W 77-61 92%    
  Nov 25, 2019 47   @ Indiana L 63-73 20%    
  Nov 30, 2019 142   Samford W 76-71 69%    
  Dec 05, 2019 48   @ Mississippi St. L 65-75 20%    
  Dec 08, 2019 186   @ Sam Houston St. W 70-68 59%    
  Dec 14, 2019 202   Louisiana W 80-71 78%    
  Dec 17, 2019 322   NC Central W 74-57 93%    
  Dec 30, 2019 238   @ Southern Miss W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 04, 2020 238   Southern Miss W 72-61 82%    
  Jan 09, 2020 121   @ Texas San Antonio L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 11, 2020 169   @ UTEP W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 16, 2020 229   Rice W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 18, 2020 152   North Texas W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 23, 2020 174   @ Middle Tennessee W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 25, 2020 140   @ UAB L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 30, 2020 276   Charlotte W 71-58 86%    
  Feb 01, 2020 139   Old Dominion W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 06, 2020 76   @ Western Kentucky L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 08, 2020 188   @ Marshall W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 13, 2020 185   Florida International W 85-77 76%    
  Feb 15, 2020 163   Florida Atlantic W 71-64 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.8 6.2 4.7 1.3 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.6 6.1 2.4 0.2 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.8 6.1 1.6 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 6.0 1.9 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.6 2.7 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.5 3.5 0.4 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.4 0.9 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.8 2.0 0.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.3 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.0 7.4 11.4 13.4 15.4 15.0 12.5 8.6 4.8 1.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
13-1 96.6% 4.7    4.0 0.7 0.0
12-2 71.8% 6.2    3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0
11-3 38.0% 4.8    1.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-4 8.8% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 10.4 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.3% 69.9% 46.2% 23.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 44.1%
13-1 4.8% 48.9% 39.8% 9.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 15.1%
12-2 8.6% 34.4% 30.8% 3.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 5.2%
11-3 12.5% 23.7% 22.9% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 9.6 1.0%
10-4 15.0% 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 12.4 0.1%
9-5 15.4% 11.6% 11.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 13.6
8-6 13.4% 5.7% 5.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 12.7
7-7 11.4% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.0
6-8 7.4% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.3
5-9 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
4-10 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.1
3-11 1.2% 1.2
2-12 0.6% 0.6
1-13 0.2% 0.2
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.8% 13.6% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 3.9 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 85.2 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.3 18.3 2.4 37.8 19.5 19.5 2.4