Preseason Rankings
Maryland
Big Ten
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#9
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#256
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 13.3% 13.3% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 27.4% 27.4% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 51.4% 51.5% 19.6%
Top 6 Seed 67.9% 68.0% 36.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.9% 87.0% 61.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.7% 84.8% 59.5%
Average Seed 4.3 4.3 6.1
.500 or above 95.4% 95.4% 82.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 86.1% 63.9%
Conference Champion 17.2% 17.3% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 8.2%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 2.2%
First Round86.2% 86.3% 59.2%
Second Round69.7% 69.8% 38.1%
Sweet Sixteen43.7% 43.8% 16.8%
Elite Eight24.5% 24.6% 2.9%
Final Four13.3% 13.4% 0.3%
Championship Game6.6% 6.6% 0.3%
National Champion3.2% 3.2% 0.3%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 113 - 8
Quad 34 - 018 - 9
Quad 44 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 312   Holy Cross W 80-51 99.7%   
  Nov 09, 2019 86   Rhode Island W 77-63 89%    
  Nov 16, 2019 201   Oakland W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 19, 2019 288   Fairfield W 83-56 99%    
  Nov 22, 2019 151   George Mason W 80-61 95%    
  Nov 28, 2019 83   Temple W 77-67 81%    
  Dec 04, 2019 41   Notre Dame W 73-64 78%    
  Dec 07, 2019 42   Illinois W 80-71 78%    
  Dec 10, 2019 43   @ Penn St. W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 19, 2019 17   @ Seton Hall W 72-71 50%    
  Dec 29, 2019 314   Bryant W 87-58 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 47   Indiana W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 07, 2020 14   Ohio St. W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 10, 2020 39   @ Iowa W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 14, 2020 33   @ Wisconsin W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 18, 2020 12   Purdue W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 21, 2020 99   @ Northwestern W 70-61 79%    
  Jan 26, 2020 47   @ Indiana W 71-67 61%    
  Jan 30, 2020 39   Iowa W 81-72 76%    
  Feb 04, 2020 66   Rutgers W 75-63 83%    
  Feb 07, 2020 42   @ Illinois W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 11, 2020 88   Nebraska W 76-62 87%    
  Feb 15, 2020 1   @ Michigan St. L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 18, 2020 99   Northwestern W 73-58 90%    
  Feb 23, 2020 14   @ Ohio St. L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 26, 2020 70   @ Minnesota W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 29, 2020 1   Michigan St. L 71-73 43%    
  Mar 03, 2020 66   @ Rutgers W 72-66 68%    
  Mar 08, 2020 21   Michigan W 69-62 71%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.6 4.3 2.5 0.7 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.3 5.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 5.6 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.4 3.5 5.4 7.0 8.3 10.0 11.9 11.4 11.4 10.2 7.7 4.8 2.5 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 99.4% 2.5    2.3 0.2
18-2 88.8% 4.3    3.4 0.8 0.0
17-3 60.2% 4.6    2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
16-4 34.2% 3.5    1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 12.1% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.0 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 57.8% 42.2% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.8% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.4 3.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.7% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.7 3.6 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.2% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.3 2.6 3.9 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.4% 99.9% 17.5% 82.5% 3.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.4% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.9 0.3 1.5 3.3 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.9% 99.7% 9.8% 89.9% 5.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.6 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 10.0% 97.9% 6.0% 91.9% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
11-9 8.3% 92.8% 3.2% 89.6% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 92.6%
10-10 7.0% 77.8% 2.1% 75.7% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 77.3%
9-11 5.4% 47.6% 2.3% 45.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 46.3%
8-12 3.5% 15.1% 1.2% 14.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9 14.1%
7-13 2.4% 4.6% 0.8% 3.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.9%
6-14 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.8%
5-15 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1%
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.9% 14.1% 72.8% 4.3 13.3 14.1 13.5 10.5 9.0 7.6 5.6 4.8 3.7 2.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.1 84.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.8 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8