Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#111
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#244
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 10.7% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.9% 7.4% 2.2%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 11.0
.500 or above 67.3% 75.2% 48.7%
.500 or above in Conference 57.4% 62.5% 45.3%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.5% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 3.3% 7.1%
First Four2.9% 3.5% 1.4%
First Round7.3% 9.0% 3.4%
Second Round2.9% 3.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 36 - 49 - 12
Quad 49 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 143   Princeton W 72-66 70%    
  Nov 11, 2019 144   Yale W 79-73 70%    
  Nov 16, 2019 207   @ Southern Illinois W 70-66 62%    
  Nov 19, 2019 197   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-63 79%    
  Nov 23, 2019 186   Sam Houston St. W 75-66 78%    
  Nov 26, 2019 245   Hampton W 82-71 85%    
  Nov 30, 2019 183   @ Hawaii W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 03, 2019 65   Arizona St. L 76-77 45%    
  Dec 04, 2019 166   California W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 14, 2019 213   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 17, 2019 113   @ Stanford L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 21, 2019 266   UC Davis W 74-61 86%    
  Dec 23, 2019 118   @ Fresno St. L 69-72 42%    
  Dec 30, 2019 69   Harvard L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 02, 2020 19   St. Mary's L 63-70 28%    
  Jan 04, 2020 285   @ Portland W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 09, 2020 128   Santa Clara W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 11, 2020 247   @ Pacific W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 18, 2020 149   Loyola Marymount W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 23, 2020 19   @ St. Mary's L 60-73 15%    
  Jan 25, 2020 67   BYU L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 30, 2020 164   @ San Diego W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 8   Gonzaga L 71-81 20%    
  Feb 06, 2020 247   Pacific W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 08, 2020 67   @ BYU L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 13, 2020 128   @ Santa Clara L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 20, 2020 8   @ Gonzaga L 68-84 9%    
  Feb 22, 2020 117   Pepperdine W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 27, 2020 285   Portland W 77-63 87%    
  Feb 29, 2020 149   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-66 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.0 1.6 0.3 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.2 4.8 0.9 0.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 7.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.1 6.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.1 11.3 13.2 14.1 13.6 11.8 8.4 5.1 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-2 76.9% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0
13-3 39.4% 1.1    0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-4 10.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-5 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 91.0% 41.3% 49.7% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.6%
15-1 0.3% 90.1% 41.1% 49.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.1%
14-2 1.1% 83.9% 25.6% 58.3% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 78.4%
13-3 2.9% 61.1% 15.1% 46.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 54.2%
12-4 5.1% 42.0% 11.9% 30.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.0 34.2%
11-5 8.4% 19.5% 6.0% 13.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 6.7 14.4%
10-6 11.8% 9.3% 4.3% 5.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.7 5.2%
9-7 13.6% 3.5% 1.8% 1.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 1.8%
8-8 14.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 0.4%
7-9 13.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0%
6-10 11.3% 0.6% 0.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3
5-11 8.1% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
4-12 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
3-13 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 2.9
2-14 1.3% 1.3
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.8% 3.1% 5.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.2 5.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 48.3 51.7