Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#168
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 20.0% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 3.6% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.0 11.7 12.8
.500 or above 79.2% 86.8% 67.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 81.0% 67.1%
Conference Champion 18.4% 22.1% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.0% 4.9%
First Four1.4% 1.8% 0.6%
First Round15.6% 19.1% 10.0%
Second Round3.8% 5.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 610 - 10
Quad 410 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 199   @ Valparaiso W 68-65 62%    
  Nov 10, 2019 188   @ Marshall W 81-78 59%    
  Nov 16, 2019 273   Robert Morris W 74-61 88%    
  Nov 17, 2019 337   Howard W 86-67 95%    
  Nov 21, 2019 41   @ Notre Dame L 64-74 18%    
  Nov 30, 2019 201   Oakland W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 04, 2019 311   @ Cleveland St. W 77-67 80%    
  Dec 08, 2019 188   Marshall W 84-75 77%    
  Dec 14, 2019 219   @ Detroit Mercy W 79-75 63%    
  Dec 17, 2019 234   @ UMKC W 72-67 65%    
  Dec 21, 2019 103   Wright St. W 70-67 58%    
  Dec 28, 2019 136   @ Bradley L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 03, 2020 120   @ Ball St. L 71-74 42%    
  Jan 07, 2020 129   @ Kent St. L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 11, 2020 231   Western Michigan W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 14, 2020 154   Central Michigan W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 18, 2020 132   @ Akron L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 21, 2020 217   @ Ohio W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 25, 2020 108   Bowling Green W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 28, 2020 129   Kent St. W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 01, 2020 222   @ Eastern Michigan W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 04, 2020 147   Northern Illinois W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 08, 2020 108   @ Bowling Green L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 11, 2020 150   Miami (OH) W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 15, 2020 104   Buffalo W 80-77 58%    
  Feb 22, 2020 231   @ Western Michigan W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 25, 2020 154   @ Central Michigan W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 29, 2020 120   Ball St. W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 03, 2020 147   @ Northern Illinois L 69-70 50%    
  Mar 06, 2020 222   Eastern Michigan W 69-59 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.3 4.9 3.8 2.0 0.5 18.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.6 5.2 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.5 11.2 11.6 11.8 10.1 8.5 6.3 4.0 2.0 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.5% 2.0    2.0 0.1
16-2 96.2% 3.8    3.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 77.6% 4.9    3.6 1.2 0.1
14-4 50.7% 4.3    2.0 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 21.5% 2.2    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 12.1 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 84.5% 59.2% 25.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 61.9%
17-1 2.0% 75.5% 49.8% 25.8% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 51.3%
16-2 4.0% 58.1% 42.0% 16.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 27.8%
15-3 6.3% 41.0% 32.0% 9.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 13.2%
14-4 8.5% 29.3% 27.2% 2.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.0 2.8%
13-5 10.1% 22.5% 22.2% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8 0.4%
12-6 11.8% 15.1% 14.8% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.3%
11-7 11.6% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.4 0.0%
10-8 11.2% 7.1% 7.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-9 9.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 9.1
8-10 7.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-11 6.1% 1.8% 1.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
6-12 4.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.3% 14.2% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.1 4.5 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 83.7 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 30.4 5.9 31.4 31.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 97.1% 4.7 5.7 40.0 42.9 2.9 2.9 2.9