Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
13 Florida St. 100.0%   5   16 - 6 11 - 4 16 - 6 11 - 4 +15.0      +9.9 10 +5.1 51 72.7 91 +14.2 22 +15.1 2
16 Virginia 100.0%   3   18 - 6 13 - 4 18 - 6 13 - 4 +14.7      +8.7 15 +6.0 37 54.0 347 +15.5 14 +16.6 1
19 North Carolina 98.8%   8   18 - 10 10 - 6 18 - 10 10 - 6 +14.6      +6.1 42 +8.5 11 76.5 36 +13.0 33 +13.6 4
31 Georgia Tech 100.0%   9   17 - 8 11 - 6 17 - 8 11 - 6 +12.8      +7.5 29 +5.4 46 68.2 198 +13.0 34 +13.7 3
35 Duke 13.9%   13 - 11 9 - 9 13 - 11 9 - 9 +12.3      +8.8 14 +3.5 77 69.8 157 +8.8 67 +8.8 10
40 Syracuse 70.9%   11   16 - 9 9 - 7 16 - 9 9 - 7 +11.2      +8.2 18 +3.0 89 70.8 135 +11.3 47 +10.6 8
45 Clemson 99.9%   8   16 - 7 10 - 6 16 - 7 10 - 6 +10.7      +3.3 98 +7.4 22 61.8 327 +14.4 18 +12.9 5
49 Virginia Tech 72.3%   10   15 - 6 9 - 4 15 - 6 9 - 4 +10.5      +5.1 57 +5.4 45 65.2 271 +12.1 42 +12.5 6
61 Louisville 69.7%   11   13 - 7 8 - 5 13 - 7 8 - 5 +9.1      +3.5 93 +5.6 41 65.0 276 +12.4 40 +12.4 7
72 North Carolina St. 0.2%   13 - 10 9 - 8 13 - 10 9 - 8 +8.0      +5.2 55 +2.8 98 68.8 183 +8.8 68 +9.8 9
84 Notre Dame 0.0%   11 - 15 7 - 11 11 - 15 7 - 11 +7.1      +7.8 24 -0.7 194 67.1 226 +7.1 82 +6.5 11
86 Pittsburgh 0.0%   10 - 12 6 - 10 10 - 12 6 - 10 +6.7      +4.5 75 +2.1 106 69.6 164 +5.1 106 +5.9 12
121 Miami (FL) 0.0%   10 - 17 4 - 15 10 - 17 4 - 15 +3.2      +1.1 142 +2.1 107 68.2 197 +3.6 116 +1.2 13
147 Boston College 0.0%   4 - 16 2 - 11 4 - 16 2 - 11 +0.9      +1.6 127 -0.6 192 76.0 43 -1.0 181 -2.4 15
148 Wake Forest 0.0%   5 - 16 3 - 15 5 - 16 3 - 15 +0.9      +0.7 155 +0.3 159 66.6 238 +0.1 161 +0.2 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Florida St. 2.0 100.0
Virginia 1.0 100.0
North Carolina 4.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 2.0 100.0
Duke 6.0 100.0
Syracuse 6.0 100.0
Clemson 4.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 6.0 100.0
Louisville 10.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 6.0 100.0
Notre Dame 11.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 12.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 13.0 100.0
Boston College 15.0 100.0
Wake Forest 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Florida St. 11 - 9 100.0
Virginia 13 - 7 100.0
North Carolina 10 - 10 100.0
Georgia Tech 11 - 9 100.0
Duke 9 - 11 100.0
Syracuse 9 - 11 100.0
Clemson 10 - 10 100.0
Virginia Tech 9 - 11 100.0
Louisville 8 - 12 100.0
North Carolina St. 9 - 11 100.0
Notre Dame 7 - 13 100.0
Pittsburgh 6 - 14 100.0
Miami (FL) 4 - 16 100.0
Boston College 2 - 18 100.0
Wake Forest 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida St.
Virginia 100.0% 100.0
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Duke
Syracuse
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Louisville
North Carolina St.
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Miami (FL)
Boston College
Wake Forest


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.0 0.4 6.3 17.0 33.9 29.0 12.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   0.2 8.8 43.4 35.9 10.7 1.1 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 8   0.0 0.0 1.1 4.6 18.4 37.3 31.6 5.7 0.1 1.2 98.8%
Georgia Tech 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 9   0.0 0.3 2.4 12.5 36.2 39.5 9.0 0.2
Duke 13.9% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0 1.3 11.3 1.2 0.0 86.1 13.9%
Syracuse 70.9% 0.0% 70.9% 11   0.1 1.9 22.0 41.8 5.2 0.0 29.1 70.9%
Clemson 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 8   0.0 0.1 2.0 11.1 34.7 36.8 14.8 0.4 0.1 99.9%
Virginia Tech 72.3% 0.0% 72.3% 10   0.0 0.9 7.4 32.6 29.6 1.8 0.0 27.7 72.3%
Louisville 69.7% 0.0% 69.7% 11   0.1 3.1 24.5 37.9 4.1 0.0 30.3 69.7%
North Carolina St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 73.0% 39.6% 15.2% 6.2% 2.2% 0.6%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 82.5% 47.3% 18.5% 7.3% 2.6% 0.8%
North Carolina 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 58.5% 18.1% 9.0% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Georgia Tech 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 50.5% 12.3% 5.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
Duke 13.9% 13.7% 8.4% 3.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 70.9% 18.9% 62.4% 24.6% 8.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Clemson 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 45.8% 10.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 72.3% 8.6% 68.1% 25.9% 7.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Louisville 69.7% 15.5% 61.4% 19.8% 5.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.3 0.0 1.4 15.3 43.6 35.8 3.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 2.8 23.3 47.4 24.9 1.6
2nd Round 99.9% 3.8 0.1 1.8 10.2 26.1 33.5 20.9 6.3 1.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 85.5% 1.5 14.5 38.1 32.1 12.5 2.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 48.4% 0.6 51.6 38.3 9.0 1.0 0.0
Final Four 20.6% 0.2 79.4 19.3 1.3 0.0
Final Game 7.1% 0.1 92.9 7.0 0.1
Champion 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9