Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Illinois 100.0%   1   23 - 6 16 - 4 23 - 6 16 - 4 +20.8      +11.4 7 +9.4 7 74.0 72 +20.4 4 +20.4 2
4 Michigan 100.0%   1   20 - 4 14 - 3 20 - 4 14 - 3 +19.8      +11.2 8 +8.6 10 66.6 239 +20.5 3 +21.4 1
5 Iowa 100.0%   2   21 - 8 14 - 6 21 - 8 14 - 6 +19.4      +14.2 3 +5.1 49 72.9 89 +17.8 5 +17.7 3
8 Ohio St. 100.0%   2   21 - 9 12 - 8 21 - 9 12 - 8 +16.8      +13.6 4 +3.2 83 66.1 250 +17.6 6 +15.9 5
14 Purdue 100.0%   4   18 - 9 13 - 6 18 - 9 13 - 6 +14.9      +7.6 26 +7.2 24 65.3 267 +15.2 15 +17.5 4
18 Wisconsin 98.5%   8   17 - 12 10 - 10 17 - 12 10 - 10 +14.7      +6.7 36 +7.9 15 62.4 322 +13.7 25 +13.3 6
36 Rutgers 97.3%   9   15 - 11 10 - 10 15 - 11 10 - 10 +12.2      +4.5 77 +7.7 16 67.8 206 +13.4 31 +12.8 7
37 Maryland 64.8%   12   15 - 13 9 - 11 15 - 13 9 - 11 +12.2      +5.2 56 +6.9 26 63.3 304 +11.5 46 +11.4 9
39 Penn St. 0.0%   11 - 14 7 - 12 11 - 14 7 - 12 +11.5      +6.8 35 +4.8 59 71.0 124 +10.6 50 +10.1 10
44 Indiana 0.0%   12 - 15 7 - 12 12 - 15 7 - 12 +10.7      +4.9 60 +5.9 39 65.3 268 +10.2 53 +9.9 11
54 Michigan St. 66.8%   11   15 - 12 9 - 11 15 - 12 9 - 11 +9.8      +3.4 95 +6.5 28 70.0 150 +12.9 35 +12.5 8
63 Minnesota 0.0%   14 - 15 6 - 14 14 - 15 6 - 14 +9.0      +4.1 81 +4.9 56 72.8 90 +10.1 56 +8.6 13
74 Northwestern 0.0%   8 - 15 6 - 13 8 - 15 6 - 13 +7.9      +1.6 123 +6.2 31 69.5 169 +7.7 76 +9.5 12
101 Nebraska 0.0%   6 - 20 3 - 16 6 - 20 3 - 16 +5.2      +0.1 171 +5.1 50 77.5 29 +2.8 129 +3.6 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Illinois 1.0 100.0
Michigan 2.0 100.0
Iowa 2.0 100.0
Ohio St. 5.0 100.0
Purdue 4.0 100.0
Wisconsin 6.0 100.0
Rutgers 6.0 100.0
Maryland 8.0 100.0
Penn St. 10.0 100.0
Indiana 10.0 100.0
Michigan St. 8.0 100.0
Minnesota 12.0 100.0
Northwestern 12.0 100.0
Nebraska 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois 16 - 4 100.0
Michigan 14 - 6 100.0
Iowa 14 - 6 100.0
Ohio St. 12 - 8 100.0
Purdue 13 - 7 100.0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 100.0
Rutgers 10 - 10 100.0
Maryland 9 - 11 100.0
Penn St. 7 - 13 100.0
Indiana 7 - 13 100.0
Michigan St. 9 - 11 100.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 100.0
Northwestern 6 - 14 100.0
Nebraska 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Illinois 100.0% 100.0
Michigan
Iowa
Ohio St.
Purdue
Wisconsin
Rutgers
Maryland
Penn St.
Indiana
Michigan St.
Minnesota
Northwestern
Nebraska


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Illinois 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   74.1 25.9 0.0
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   74.7 25.2 0.1 100.0%
Iowa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   9.9 70.2 19.2 0.8 0.0 100.0%
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   16.0 75.4 8.5 0.1 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.9 24.5 38.2 30.2 5.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Wisconsin 98.5% 0.0% 98.5% 8   0.0 1.1 7.5 19.0 35.6 27.6 7.4 0.3 1.6 98.5%
Rutgers 97.3% 0.0% 97.3% 9   0.0 0.2 1.4 11.2 38.5 40.6 5.5 0.0 2.7 97.3%
Maryland 64.8% 0.0% 64.8% 12   0.0 0.2 4.9 34.0 25.2 0.4 35.2 64.8%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Michigan St. 66.8% 0.0% 66.8% 11   0.0 0.2 4.7 40.3 21.5 0.1 33.2 66.8%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.4% 76.9% 57.6% 38.2% 21.2% 9.8%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.0% 73.6% 53.2% 33.1% 16.9% 7.2%
Iowa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.2% 70.5% 49.0% 25.4% 13.1% 5.6%
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.4% 61.2% 37.0% 15.9% 6.7% 2.3%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79.0% 45.5% 16.2% 6.5% 2.3% 0.7%
Wisconsin 98.5% 0.0% 98.4% 59.2% 19.4% 9.9% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Rutgers 97.3% 0.3% 97.2% 44.4% 11.5% 5.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Maryland 64.8% 46.4% 45.9% 18.9% 8.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan St. 66.8% 46.3% 43.2% 14.5% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.3 0.0 0.3 11.8 48.1 39.8
1st Round 100.0% 7.8 0.0 0.9 29.9 52.8 16.5
2nd Round 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.5 23.6 39.5 24.7 5.8 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 99.9% 3.7 0.1 1.9 10.9 28.3 35.1 19.4 4.0 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 96.7% 2.3 3.3 18.1 35.5 30.8 11.0 1.2 0.1
Final Four 82.7% 1.3 17.3 45.4 31.8 5.3 0.2
Final Game 55.5% 0.6 44.5 48.7 6.8
Champion 26.1% 0.3 73.9 26.1