Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Baylor 90.0%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 12 - 6 +18.1      +9.4 6 +8.7 4 64.8 284 0.0 1 0.0 1
4 Kansas 86.0%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 12 - 6 +17.0      +7.9 14 +9.1 2 67.4 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
7 West Virginia 81.6%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 8 11 - 7 +15.8      +7.6 18 +8.2 7 71.6 101 0.0 1 0.0 1
14 Texas Tech 77.1%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 10 - 8 +14.9      +6.7 29 +8.2 6 67.1 232 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Texas 73.9%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 10 - 8 +14.7      +6.2 34 +8.5 5 64.3 293 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 Oklahoma 52.8%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 9 - 9 +12.0      +6.0 38 +6.0 28 72.3 82 0.0 1 0.0 1
42 Oklahoma St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 8 - 10 +10.5      +5.1 53 +5.4 44 68.9 176 0.0 1 0.0 1
69 TCU 26.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 6 - 12 +8.1      +2.5 108 +5.7 39 62.6 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
71 Iowa St. 22.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 6 - 12 +7.9      +6.2 36 +1.8 115 72.2 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 Kansas St. 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 5 - 13 +6.2      +0.5 156 +5.7 37 66.3 249 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Baylor 2.9 34.0 20.5 15.0 10.8 7.5 5.4 3.1 2.3 1.1 0.4
Kansas 3.3 25.9 20.0 15.8 12.7 9.1 6.4 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.7
West Virginia 3.8 18.9 17.7 15.2 13.4 10.8 9.1 6.8 4.6 2.4 1.2
Texas Tech 4.1 15.1 15.8 15.2 13.6 12.2 9.9 7.9 5.4 3.5 1.4
Texas 4.3 14.4 13.9 15.0 13.8 12.5 10.5 8.5 5.8 3.8 1.9
Oklahoma 5.5 6.1 8.6 10.4 12.3 12.4 13.3 13.0 10.7 8.1 5.2
Oklahoma St. 6.1 4.0 5.8 7.5 10.2 11.5 13.3 14.3 13.4 11.8 8.3
TCU 7.1 1.4 2.9 4.5 6.2 8.7 11.2 14.1 16.4 17.9 16.8
Iowa St. 7.2 1.5 2.8 4.0 6.1 7.8 10.6 14.1 16.7 18.9 17.6
Kansas St. 7.9 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.9 5.8 8.1 11.7 16.2 21.7 28.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Baylor 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.8 4.3 6.3 8.8 10.4 12.3 12.8 13.1 11.0 7.9 4.8 1.9
Kansas 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.4 4.1 5.7 7.9 10.0 11.3 12.8 12.3 11.2 9.2 6.3 3.0 0.8
West Virginia 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.3 5.7 7.9 9.4 11.1 12.0 11.6 10.4 9.5 6.9 4.2 1.7 0.6
Texas Tech 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 4.7 6.9 8.6 10.1 11.6 12.3 11.7 9.9 7.8 5.2 2.9 1.4 0.4
Texas 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.8 5.2 7.4 9.0 10.9 11.6 11.5 10.9 9.6 7.2 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.3
Oklahoma 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.9 4.9 6.9 9.1 10.8 11.8 11.5 10.5 9.7 7.6 5.3 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.5 7.3 9.4 10.8 11.8 11.4 10.8 9.5 7.4 5.4 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
TCU 6 - 12 1.0 3.2 5.8 8.7 11.3 12.1 12.1 11.7 10.2 8.1 5.8 4.1 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 6 - 12 1.1 3.3 6.5 9.0 11.4 12.6 12.8 11.1 9.5 7.5 5.9 3.8 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 5 - 13 2.4 5.8 9.9 12.7 13.6 13.5 11.5 8.9 7.5 5.5 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Baylor 34.0% 24.5 7.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kansas 25.9% 17.9 6.3 1.5 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 18.9% 12.7 5.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Texas Tech 15.1% 9.6 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas 14.4% 9.3 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 6.1% 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 4.0% 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
TCU 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Baylor 90.0% 25.5% 64.5% 1   26.2 16.3 12.6 9.1 7.0 5.4 3.8 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.0 86.6%
Kansas 86.0% 20.4% 65.6% 1   20.1 15.4 11.7 9.0 7.9 5.9 4.2 3.1 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 14.0 82.4%
West Virginia 81.6% 16.4% 65.2% 2   15.4 12.6 10.3 9.2 7.8 6.4 4.9 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 18.4 78.0%
Texas Tech 77.1% 13.3% 63.8% 4   9.0 9.3 9.1 8.5 8.1 7.1 7.1 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.9 73.6%
Texas 73.9% 12.6% 61.3% 4   9.9 10.0 8.6 8.2 7.4 6.6 5.5 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 26.1 70.1%
Oklahoma 52.8% 6.4% 46.4% 8   3.0 4.0 5.1 5.1 5.8 5.2 5.5 4.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 47.2 49.6%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
TCU 26.0% 2.2% 23.8% 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 74.0 24.3%
Iowa St. 22.2% 2.2% 20.0% 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 77.8 20.5%
Kansas St. 16.3% 1.1% 15.2% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 83.7 15.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Baylor 90.0% 2.4% 89.0% 76.7% 52.9% 33.5% 20.0% 12.2% 6.8%
Kansas 86.0% 3.0% 84.8% 71.2% 46.6% 27.5% 15.8% 8.6% 4.7%
West Virginia 81.6% 3.3% 80.3% 63.5% 39.2% 22.3% 12.2% 6.2% 3.3%
Texas Tech 77.1% 3.1% 75.8% 56.6% 33.0% 18.1% 9.3% 4.8% 2.4%
Texas 73.9% 4.3% 72.1% 54.1% 32.1% 17.6% 9.5% 4.7% 2.4%
Oklahoma 52.8% 4.7% 50.6% 33.4% 17.1% 8.0% 3.7% 1.8% 0.8%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 26.0% 3.3% 24.4% 13.9% 5.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Iowa St. 22.2% 3.2% 20.7% 12.1% 5.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Kansas St. 16.3% 2.5% 15.1% 7.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.3 0.1 2.6 17.6 40.2 30.7 8.0 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.1 3.4 21.0 41.4 27.4 6.2 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 3.9 0.0 0.9 7.7 26.1 37.5 22.3 5.1 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.1% 2.3 2.9 18.3 35.9 29.6 11.5 1.7 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 82.2% 1.3 17.8 42.4 30.5 8.4 0.9 0.0
Final Four 58.4% 0.7 41.6 45.2 12.2 1.0 0.0
Final Game 36.2% 0.4 63.8 33.4 2.8
Champion 20.6% 0.2 79.4 20.6