Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
149 Siena 25.5%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 8 14 - 6 +0.8      +1.2 136 -0.4 181 66.2 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 Monmouth 17.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 9 12 - 8 -0.9      -0.8 193 -0.2 169 78.3 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 St. Peter's 13.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 12 - 8 -2.2      -3.8 282 +1.7 116 67.6 220 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Canisius 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 10 10 - 10 -4.1      -1.9 228 -2.2 237 72.1 88 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 Iona 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 10 -4.1      -1.5 213 -2.5 247 69.5 155 0.0 1 0.0 1
251 Manhattan 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 11 9 - 11 -5.5      -5.8 317 +0.2 163 63.8 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 Niagara 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 9 - 11 -5.9      -1.6 214 -4.3 298 64.9 279 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 Fairfield 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 9 - 11 -6.2      -7.6 334 +1.4 127 59.6 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 Rider 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 9 - 11 -6.4      -3.7 279 -2.7 251 75.2 44 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Marist 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 13 8 - 12 -6.9      -6.2 323 -0.7 193 62.6 321 0.0 1 0.0 1
288 Quinnipiac 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 8 - 12 -7.1      -3.2 268 -3.9 287 69.6 150 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Siena 3.0 36.1 19.0 12.9 9.6 6.8 5.0 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.4 0.7
Monmouth 3.8 22.7 17.8 14.2 11.2 9.0 7.1 6.0 4.6 3.4 2.7 1.4
St. Peter's 4.5 15.4 15.2 13.5 11.8 10.3 9.3 7.5 6.1 5.2 3.5 2.2
Canisius 5.4 9.6 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.1 9.1 8.6 8.3 6.3 4.9
Iona 5.4 10.2 10.7 10.9 11.1 10.4 9.3 9.1 8.3 7.7 6.8 5.4
Manhattan 6.2 5.8 7.8 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.1 10.5 10.2 10.1 8.8 8.1
Niagara 6.5 5.4 6.5 8.3 9.1 9.5 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.4 9.3
Fairfield 6.7 4.5 6.4 7.3 8.3 8.7 10.0 10.7 10.8 11.5 11.6 10.3
Rider 6.8 4.4 5.8 7.0 8.6 8.5 9.7 9.9 10.8 11.3 11.6 12.5
Marist 7.1 3.6 5.0 6.5 7.5 8.6 9.6 10.5 10.9 11.9 12.4 13.6
Quinnipiac 7.1 3.2 5.0 6.3 7.9 8.5 9.6 10.8 10.8 11.9 12.8 13.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Siena 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.4 6.1 7.7 8.9 10.8 11.1 10.8 10.8 9.4 7.0 4.1 1.4
Monmouth 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.9 6.5 8.4 9.5 10.4 10.8 10.9 9.8 8.0 5.9 3.5 1.6 0.5
St. Peter's 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.0 6.9 8.3 9.7 10.4 11.0 10.6 9.0 7.8 6.0 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.2
Canisius 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.4 5.7 7.4 9.2 9.5 10.3 10.2 9.8 8.4 6.7 5.2 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Iona 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.4 5.9 7.1 9.0 9.0 10.3 10.3 9.5 8.3 6.8 5.4 3.6 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.1
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.0 7.1 9.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.2 8.4 6.9 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Niagara 9 - 11 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.0 6.9 8.4 9.1 10.2 10.6 10.0 9.1 7.6 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.5 9.3 9.9 10.6 10.2 9.7 8.3 7.2 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1
Rider 9 - 11 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.4 6.0 7.7 9.3 9.7 10.4 9.6 9.4 8.1 6.6 5.3 3.8 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Marist 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.8 6.5 8.4 9.4 10.5 10.7 9.5 9.7 7.7 6.5 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.6 6.8 8.4 9.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 9.1 8.0 6.3 4.5 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Siena 36.1% 27.2 7.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
Monmouth 22.7% 15.8 5.5 1.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 15.4% 10.3 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
Canisius 9.6% 6.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Iona 10.2% 6.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 5.8% 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Niagara 5.4% 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 4.5% 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Rider 4.4% 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marist 3.6% 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 3.2% 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Siena 25.5% 25.1% 0.4% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.5 5.8 6.8 5.4 3.1 74.5 0.5%
Monmouth 17.6% 17.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.4 4.5 4.6 3.2 82.4 0.1%
St. Peter's 13.4% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.2 86.6 0.0%
Canisius 8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.9 2.8 2.4 91.1 0.0%
Iona 8.5% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.8 91.5 0.1%
Manhattan 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 2.1 94.1 0.0%
Niagara 5.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 94.9 0.0%
Fairfield 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.2 95.4 0.0%
Rider 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 95.7 0.0%
Marist 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.8 96.3 0.0%
Quinnipiac 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 96.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Siena 25.5% 1.6% 24.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 17.6% 1.5% 16.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 13.4% 2.1% 12.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 8.9% 1.2% 8.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 8.5% 1.6% 7.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 5.9% 1.0% 5.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 5.1% 1.2% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 4.6% 1.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 4.3% 1.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 3.7% 1.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 3.3% 1.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
1st Round 93.2% 0.9 6.8 92.9 0.3
2nd Round 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0