IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.8	#308
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.7	#62
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#220

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.1	#332

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.1%	3.6%	1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.3	15.6

.500 or above	14.8%	26.6%	9.0%
.500 or above in Conference	31.7%	43.3%	26.0%
Conference Champion	1.6%	2.8%	1.0%
Last Place in Conference	30.2%	20.9%	34.8%

First Four	1.0%	1.4%	0.8%
First Round	1.6%	2.9%	1.0%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Neutral) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 10
Quad 4	6 - 8	8 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	225	Air Force	L	77-82	33%
Nov 30, 2020	286	Seattle	L	79-81	44%
Dec 12, 2020	108	@ Pepperdine	L	75-91	7%
Dec 16, 2020	138	Pacific	L	69-76	26%
Dec 27, 2020	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	75-79	37%
Dec 28, 2020	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	75-79	37%
Jan 01, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	71-80	22%
Jan 02, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	71-80	22%
Jan 08, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	66-73	26%
Jan 09, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	66-73	26%
Jan 15, 2021	228	@ Long Beach St.	L	77-85	27%
Jan 16, 2021	228	@ Long Beach St.	L	77-85	27%
Jan 22, 2021	141	UC Santa Barbara	L	70-77	27%
Jan 23, 2021	141	UC Santa Barbara	L	70-77	27%
Jan 29, 2021	315	@ Cal Poly	L	77-79	44%
Jan 30, 2021	315	@ Cal Poly	L	77-79	44%
Feb 05, 2021	204	UC Davis	L	76-79	41%
Feb 06, 2021	204	UC Davis	L	76-79	41%
Feb 12, 2021	177	@ Grand Canyon	L	73-84	18%
Feb 19, 2021	200	Hawaii	L	75-78	40%
Feb 20, 2021	200	Hawaii	L	75-78	40%
Feb 26, 2021	214	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	68-76	26%
Feb 27, 2021	214	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	68-76	25%
Mar 05, 2021	208	UC Riverside	L	68-71	42%
Mar 06, 2021	208	UC Riverside	L	68-71	41%
Projected Record						8 - 17	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.2		1.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0		3.1	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.0	1.7	1.3	0.3	0.0				4.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.5	2.7	1.4	0.2	0.0					6.1	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.2	3.4	1.7	0.3	0.0						8.0	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	2.8	4.1	2.0	0.2								9.6	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	3.9	5.2	2.1	0.2									12.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.8	5.1	5.5	2.2	0.2	0.0									15.2	8th
9th		0.1	1.2	3.7	6.0	4.7	1.7	0.2											17.6	9th
10th	1.6	4.2	6.1	5.8	3.1	0.8	0.1												21.8	10th

Total	1.6	4.3	7.2	9.8	11.1	11.6	11.8	10.9	8.8	7.3	5.6	3.9	2.8	1.6	1.0	0.4	0.2			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	89.2%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-1	80.7%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-2	52.1%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-3	20.8%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-4	5.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-5	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	1.5%	1.5		0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.2%		23.8%	23.8%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
15-1	0.4%		27.3%	27.3%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
14-2	1.0%		15.3%	15.3%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.8
13-3	1.6%		14.1%	14.1%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.4
12-4	2.8%		11.1%	11.1%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.2	2.5
11-5	3.9%		6.0%	6.0%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	3.7
10-6	5.6%		5.2%	5.2%		15.8																0.1	0.2	5.4
9-7	7.3%		3.3%	3.3%		15.9																0.0	0.2	7.1
8-8	8.8%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																0.0	0.2	8.6
7-9	10.9%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.7
6-10	11.8%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	11.7
5-11	11.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
4-12	11.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
3-13	9.8%																							9.8
2-14	7.2%																							7.2
1-15	4.3%																							4.3
0-16	1.6%																							1.6

Total	100%		2.1%	2.1%	0.0%	15.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	1.4	97.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.7%