IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.0	#191
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.4	#158
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.5	#245

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.5	#156

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	3.9%	1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	0.7%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.1	12.8	13.9

.500 or above	28.1%	43.2%	19.0%
.500 or above in Conference	36.6%	47.0%	30.4%
Conference Champion	2.4%	4.0%	1.5%
Last Place in Conference	12.0%	7.5%	14.8%

First Four	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
First Round	2.1%	3.7%	1.1%
Second Round	0.4%	0.8%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	4 - 7	5 - 13
Quad 4	5 - 3	10 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	187	@ South Alabama	L	67-70	38%
Nov 27, 2020	255	Jacksonville St.	W	72-68	63%
Dec 07, 2020	218	@ North Florida	L	76-77	46%
Dec 12, 2020	48	@ North Carolina St.	L	66-81	9%
Dec 15, 2020	250	@ Stetson	W	66-65	52%
Dec 19, 2020	22	@ Florida	L	58-77	5%
Jan 01, 2021	193	Middle Tennessee	W	74-71	61%
Jan 02, 2021	193	Middle Tennessee	W	74-71	60%
Jan 08, 2021	118	@ Old Dominion	L	63-71	23%
Jan 09, 2021	118	@ Old Dominion	L	63-71	24%
Jan 14, 2021	171	@ Florida International	L	74-78	35%
Jan 16, 2021	171	Florida International	W	77-75	55%
Jan 21, 2021	164	Charlotte	W	68-67	55%
Jan 23, 2021	164	Charlotte	W	68-67	55%
Jan 28, 2021	110	@ Marshall	L	74-83	22%
Jan 30, 2021	110	@ Marshall	L	74-83	22%
Feb 05, 2021	82	Western Kentucky	L	70-76	31%
Feb 06, 2021	82	Western Kentucky	L	70-76	32%
Feb 11, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	L	76-82	33%
Feb 13, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	L	76-82	32%
Feb 19, 2021	161	UTEP	W	69-68	54%
Feb 20, 2021	161	UTEP	W	69-68	54%
Feb 26, 2021	229	@ Southern Miss	L	68-69	48%
Feb 27, 2021	229	@ Southern Miss	L	68-69	47%
Projected Record						10 - 14	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.8	1.6	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0			3.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.2	2.1	1.2	0.2	0.0					4.8	3rd
4th										0.2	1.1	2.7	1.4	0.4	0.0						5.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	2.8	1.9	0.4	0.0							5.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	3.0	3.0	0.5	0.0								7.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	2.5	3.8	1.1	0.0									7.7	7th
8th							0.2	1.9	4.2	1.9	0.2										8.3	8th
9th						0.1	1.4	4.1	3.2	0.3	0.0										9.1	9th
10th					0.1	0.9	3.6	3.6	0.9	0.0											9.1	10th
11th				0.1	0.8	3.6	4.2	1.3	0.1												10.0	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.9	3.3	3.6	1.4	0.1													9.5	12th
13th	0.0	0.3	1.3	3.0	3.2	1.4	0.2														9.4	13th
14th	0.5	1.6	2.1	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.0														7.0	14th

Total	0.5	1.9	3.5	5.8	8.2	9.7	11.0	11.2	11.5	9.9	8.4	6.5	4.8	3.4	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	99.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	83.2%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	66.2%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0
14-4	41.8%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.4%	2.4		1.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	8.8					0.0	0.0		0.0			0.0							0.0		50.0%
17-1	0.1%		65.1%	29.4%	35.7%	10.8						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		50.6%
16-2	0.5%		36.1%	22.5%	13.6%	11.4									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3		17.5%
15-3	1.0%		26.8%	20.6%	6.2%	11.6								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.7		7.8%
14-4	2.0%		17.2%	14.5%	2.7%	12.5											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.7		3.2%
13-5	3.4%		10.7%	10.2%	0.6%	13.0												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		3.1		0.6%
12-6	4.8%		6.4%	6.2%	0.2%	13.6													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1		4.5		0.2%
11-7	6.5%		4.7%	4.7%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	6.2
10-8	8.4%		1.5%	1.5%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	8.2
9-9	9.9%		1.4%	1.4%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.8
8-10	11.5%		0.5%	0.5%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	11.4
7-11	11.2%		0.3%	0.3%		15.8																0.0	0.0	11.2
6-12	11.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
5-13	9.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
4-14	8.2%																							8.2
3-15	5.8%																							5.8
2-16	3.5%																							3.5
1-17	1.9%																							1.9
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		2.2%	2.0%	0.3%	13.1					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	97.8		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%