IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.5	#167
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.3	#294
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.2	#204

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.7	#149

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	17.1%	20.7%	13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Average Seed	14.2	13.8	14.7

.500 or above	70.5%	82.2%	57.6%
.500 or above in Conference	67.8%	75.2%	59.6%
Conference Champion	16.6%	20.5%	12.3%
Last Place in Conference	3.6%	2.3%	5.2%

First Four	2.1%	1.6%	2.7%
First Round	16.3%	20.1%	12.1%
Second Round	1.7%	2.4%	0.9%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 4	16 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	130	Ball St.	W	67-66	53%
Nov 28, 2020	158	@ Chattanooga	L	68-72	37%
Dec 03, 2020	304	Tennessee Tech	W	72-61	84%
Dec 06, 2020	51	@ Butler	L	58-71	12%
Dec 13, 2020	172	@ Kent St.	L	68-71	40%
Dec 19, 2020	199	Youngstown St.	W	71-66	66%
Dec 20, 2020	199	Youngstown St.	W	71-66	67%
Dec 26, 2020	243	@ Oakland	W	68-66	55%
Dec 27, 2020	243	@ Oakland	W	68-66	56%
Jan 01, 2021	227	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	71-64	71%
Jan 02, 2021	227	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	71-64	71%
Jan 08, 2021	242	@ Cleveland St.	W	68-66	55%
Jan 09, 2021	242	@ Cleveland St.	W	68-66	56%
Jan 15, 2021	295	IUPUI	W	79-69	81%
Jan 16, 2021	295	IUPUI	W	79-69	81%
Jan 22, 2021	212	@ Robert Morris	L	65-66	49%
Jan 23, 2021	212	@ Robert Morris	L	65-66	50%
Jan 29, 2021	216	Illinois-Chicago	W	71-65	71%
Jan 30, 2021	216	Illinois-Chicago	W	71-65	71%
Feb 05, 2021	272	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	71-68	60%
Feb 06, 2021	272	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	71-68	59%
Feb 12, 2021	240	@ Green Bay	W	78-77	54%
Feb 13, 2021	240	@ Green Bay	W	78-77	54%
Feb 19, 2021	121	Wright St.	L	72-73	48%
Feb 20, 2021	121	Wright St.	L	72-73	48%
Projected Record						14 - 11	10 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.8	2.7	4.2	4.6	2.9	1.2				16.6	1st
2nd										0.2	2.3	5.8	6.7	4.8	1.5	0.2					21.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.2	2.9	6.1	5.1	1.7	0.3	0.0						16.2	3rd
4th								0.2	2.3	5.5	3.7	0.7	0.1								12.4	4th
5th						0.0	0.1	1.6	4.3	2.7	0.5	0.0									9.2	5th
6th						0.1	1.2	3.8	2.6	0.4	0.0										8.1	6th
7th				0.0	0.1	0.8	2.5	2.1	0.3												5.9	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	0.7	2.1	1.7	0.3	0.0												4.9	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	1.2	0.3	0.0													3.2	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.2															1.9	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	2.5	4.5	5.7	8.0	9.7	11.7	12.7	12.5	11.1	9.3	6.1	3.2	1.2					Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	1.2		1.2	0.0
15-3	92.3%	2.9		2.6	0.4
14-4	74.9%	4.6		3.2	1.3	0.1
13-5	45.6%	4.2		2.4	1.5	0.3	0.0
12-6	24.0%	2.7		0.9	1.3	0.5	0.0
11-7	6.7%	0.8		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.1%	0.0						0.0

Total	16.6%	16.6		10.4	4.9	1.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	1.2%		63.8%	58.3%	5.5%	10.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5		13.1%
15-3	3.2%		53.1%	51.0%	2.1%	12.7									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.5		4.3%
14-4	6.1%		40.7%	40.6%	0.1%	13.4											0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	3.6		0.1%
13-5	9.3%		33.8%	33.8%	0.0%	14.0												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	0.8	0.2	6.2		0.0%
12-6	11.1%		26.1%	26.1%		14.4													0.0	0.4	1.2	1.0	0.3	8.2
11-7	12.5%		17.8%	17.8%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	0.6	10.2
10-8	12.7%		13.0%	13.0%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	11.0
9-9	11.7%		9.8%	9.8%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	10.6
8-10	9.7%		6.9%	6.9%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	9.0
7-11	8.0%		3.5%	3.5%		15.9																0.0	0.3	7.7
6-12	5.7%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	5.6
5-13	4.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
4-14	2.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
3-15	1.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		17.1%	17.0%	0.1%	14.2			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.2	3.0	4.2	4.2	3.8	82.9		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.9		2.1	50.0	20.8	20.8	2.1	2.1	2.1