Preseason Rankings
Drake
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#74
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#243
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.7% 3.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 6.7% 6.8% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.5% 36.0% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.9% 14.2% 1.3%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 12.4
.500 or above 90.7% 91.3% 60.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 90.2% 67.5%
Conference Champion 36.4% 36.9% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 3.3%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 1.2%
First Round33.8% 34.3% 10.5%
Second Round14.7% 15.0% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.7% 5.8% 1.3%
Elite Eight2.3% 2.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 310 - 7
Quad 410 - 120 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 333   IUPUI W 78-55 98%    
  Nov 14, 2022 181   Wofford W 74-62 85%    
  Nov 18, 2022 133   Buffalo W 79-73 69%    
  Nov 26, 2022 158   Louisiana W 71-60 82%    
  Nov 30, 2022 161   @ Indiana St. W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 03, 2022 247   Illinois-Chicago W 81-66 89%    
  Dec 07, 2022 307   Nebraska Omaha W 86-66 95%    
  Dec 10, 2022 88   @ Richmond L 69-71 45%    
  Dec 17, 2022 45   @ Saint Louis L 70-76 33%    
  Dec 20, 2022 64   Mississippi St. L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 29, 2022 212   Valparaiso W 75-62 85%    
  Jan 01, 2023 131   @ Missouri St. W 73-70 58%    
  Jan 04, 2023 138   @ Southern Illinois W 65-62 61%    
  Jan 07, 2023 114   Murray St. W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 10, 2023 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-69 76%    
  Jan 14, 2023 117   Bradley W 74-66 72%    
  Jan 18, 2023 131   Missouri St. W 76-67 75%    
  Jan 21, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 73-59 87%    
  Jan 24, 2023 161   Indiana St. W 78-67 80%    
  Jan 29, 2023 115   @ Belmont W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 01, 2023 132   Northern Iowa W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 04, 2023 212   @ Valparaiso W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 07, 2023 114   @ Murray St. W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 138   Southern Illinois W 68-59 77%    
  Feb 15, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 19, 2023 115   Belmont W 78-70 72%    
  Feb 22, 2023 180   Illinois St. W 78-66 82%    
  Feb 26, 2023 117   @ Bradley W 71-69 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 6.1 8.6 8.7 6.2 2.8 36.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.3 5.8 4.7 2.1 0.5 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.2 7.7 9.1 10.5 11.3 11.3 10.7 9.2 6.2 2.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
19-1 100.0% 6.2    6.1 0.1
18-2 95.1% 8.7    7.6 1.1 0.0
17-3 80.5% 8.6    6.4 2.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 53.8% 6.1    3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 26.9% 3.0    1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.4% 36.4 27.6 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.8% 96.2% 63.8% 32.4% 3.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.5%
19-1 6.2% 90.4% 54.6% 35.8% 6.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 78.9%
18-2 9.2% 76.7% 44.9% 31.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 57.7%
17-3 10.7% 59.2% 36.2% 23.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 36.1%
16-4 11.3% 40.5% 29.9% 10.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 6.7 15.1%
15-5 11.3% 28.7% 23.9% 4.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 6.2%
14-6 10.5% 21.5% 20.4% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.2 1.5%
13-7 9.1% 15.4% 15.1% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 0.3%
12-8 7.7% 12.5% 12.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
11-9 6.2% 10.0% 10.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.6
10-10 4.8% 7.4% 7.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.5
9-11 3.6% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
8-12 2.7% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5
7-13 1.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-18 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 35.5% 25.1% 10.4% 9.7 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.5 3.9 7.4 6.6 3.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 64.5 13.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 2.3 29.6 33.3 20.5 13.0 3.1 0.5