Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#180
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#132
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#161
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 5.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 14.5
.500 or above 61.3% 67.5% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 53.2% 26.0%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.6% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 5.7% 15.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round5.0% 5.6% 2.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 411 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 288   Western Illinois W 82-72 83%    
  Nov 10, 2022 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-66 75%    
  Nov 12, 2022 338   @ Northwestern St. W 82-74 77%    
  Nov 17, 2022 338   Northwestern St. W 85-71 88%    
  Nov 21, 2022 47   LSU L 68-79 17%    
  Dec 01, 2022 114   @ Murray St. L 68-75 28%    
  Dec 04, 2022 115   Belmont L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 07, 2022 226   Eastern Michigan W 78-73 68%    
  Dec 10, 2022 326   SIU Edwardsville W 80-67 86%    
  Dec 17, 2022 200   Ball St. W 77-76 53%    
  Dec 19, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 83-59 98%    
  Dec 28, 2022 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 31, 2022 132   Northern Iowa W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 04, 2023 161   Indiana St. W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 07, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 70-64 68%    
  Jan 11, 2023 131   Missouri St. W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 14, 2023 138   @ Southern Illinois L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 18, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa L 70-76 33%    
  Jan 21, 2023 212   Valparaiso W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 25, 2023 117   @ Bradley L 69-76 29%    
  Jan 29, 2023 138   Southern Illinois W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 01, 2023 247   Illinois-Chicago W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 115   @ Belmont L 72-79 29%    
  Feb 08, 2023 117   Bradley L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 212   @ Valparaiso L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 15, 2023 114   Murray St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 161   @ Indiana St. L 72-76 39%    
  Feb 22, 2023 74   @ Drake L 66-78 18%    
  Feb 26, 2023 313   Evansville W 73-61 83%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.6 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.6 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.7 8.4 9.5 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.0 6.8 5.3 4.2 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 88.6% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 71.9% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 44.9% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 89.8% 28.7% 61.1% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7%
19-1 0.4% 69.3% 33.7% 35.7% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 53.7%
18-2 0.9% 44.2% 29.3% 14.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 21.1%
17-3 1.8% 24.8% 20.2% 4.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.7%
16-4 2.8% 19.7% 18.2% 1.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 1.9%
15-5 4.2% 14.3% 14.1% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6 0.2%
14-6 5.3% 11.4% 11.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.7
13-7 6.8% 8.3% 8.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.2
12-8 8.0% 6.3% 6.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.5
11-9 8.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.5
10-10 9.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.2
9-11 9.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
8-12 9.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.3
7-13 8.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-14 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-15 6.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-16 4.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-17 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-18 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-19 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.3% 4.8% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 94.7 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 98.1% 4.7 9.6 40.4 28.8 9.6 9.6