Preseason Rankings
North Dakota
Summit League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#322
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#175
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#343
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.1% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 16.8% 26.1% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 39.0% 19.5%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 6.5% 15.2%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round1.1% 1.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 49 - 910 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 348   @ Incarnate Word W 72-71 52%    
  Nov 10, 2022 14   @ Creighton L 58-86 1%    
  Nov 15, 2022 228   Pacific L 71-75 36%    
  Nov 17, 2022 302   @ Elon L 68-73 35%    
  Nov 20, 2022 140   Montana St. L 69-78 23%    
  Nov 25, 2022 253   Utah Tech L 63-65 42%    
  Nov 27, 2022 191   Cal St. Fullerton L 68-74 30%    
  Nov 30, 2022 51   @ Iowa St. L 58-81 3%    
  Dec 03, 2022 154   @ Portland L 69-83 13%    
  Dec 06, 2022 342   @ Idaho L 75-76 50%    
  Dec 10, 2022 173   Seattle L 71-78 29%    
  Dec 19, 2022 357   @ St. Thomas W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 21, 2022 288   @ Western Illinois L 75-80 33%    
  Dec 30, 2022 216   North Dakota St. L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 05, 2023 135   South Dakota L 69-78 23%    
  Jan 07, 2023 134   South Dakota St. L 75-84 23%    
  Jan 12, 2023 307   @ Nebraska Omaha L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 14, 2023 346   @ Denver W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 19, 2023 289   UMKC W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 21, 2023 122   Oral Roberts L 76-86 20%    
  Jan 27, 2023 216   @ North Dakota St. L 66-77 20%    
  Feb 02, 2023 134   @ South Dakota St. L 72-87 12%    
  Feb 04, 2023 135   @ South Dakota L 66-81 12%    
  Feb 09, 2023 346   Denver W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 307   Nebraska Omaha W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 16, 2023 122   @ Oral Roberts L 73-89 10%    
  Feb 18, 2023 289   @ UMKC L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 23, 2023 288   Western Illinois W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 357   St. Thomas W 77-65 83%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.7 5.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 6.3 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.1 6.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 17.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 4.6 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.6 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 10th
Total 0.6 2.0 4.3 6.9 9.4 11.5 12.7 12.0 11.1 9.5 7.2 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 56.8% 0.3    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 37.1% 37.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 31.8% 31.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 17.9% 17.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.2% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
12-6 3.5% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.3
11-7 5.3% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.1
10-8 7.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.0
9-9 9.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.3
8-10 11.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.0
7-11 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
6-12 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-13 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.5
4-14 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.9
2-16 4.3% 4.3
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%