IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.2	#276
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.9	#152
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.6	#255

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.6	#289

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.1%	15.0%	5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	15.1	15.7

.500 or above	71.2%	77.9%	43.8%
.500 or above in Conference	74.8%	79.2%	57.0%
Conference Champion	15.4%	17.6%	6.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.7%	1.9%	6.0%

First Four	3.8%	4.0%	3.1%
First Round	11.0%	12.8%	3.7%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 4	14 - 7	15 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 14, 2022	341	Alabama A&M	W	72-63	80%
Nov 14, 2022	356	South Carolina St.	W	83-68	91%
Nov 17, 2022	138	@ Southern Illinois	L	59-70	17%
Nov 21, 2022	311	Cal St. Northridge	W	72-69	60%
Nov 30, 2022	45	@ Saint Louis	L	64-84	5%
Dec 03, 2022	254	@ Austin Peay	L	66-71	35%
Dec 11, 2022	225	Lipscomb	L	76-77	49%
Dec 14, 2022	335	Charleston Southern	W	78-70	75%
Dec 29, 2022	187	Morehead St.	L	66-69	42%
Dec 31, 2022	261	Arkansas Little Rock	W	73-71	57%
Jan 05, 2023	326	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	73-72	54%
Jan 07, 2023	355	@ Lindenwood	W	76-68	73%
Jan 12, 2023	352	Tennessee Martin	W	82-69	84%
Jan 14, 2023	305	@ Tennessee Tech	L	75-76	47%
Jan 19, 2023	330	Eastern Illinois	W	74-66	73%
Jan 21, 2023	261	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	70-74	38%
Jan 26, 2023	281	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	78-80	43%
Jan 28, 2023	355	Lindenwood	W	79-65	86%
Feb 02, 2023	339	@ Southern Indiana	W	73-70	59%
Feb 04, 2023	330	@ Eastern Illinois	W	71-69	55%
Feb 09, 2023	281	Southeast Missouri St.	W	81-77	61%
Feb 11, 2023	305	Tennessee Tech	W	78-73	66%
Feb 16, 2023	187	@ Morehead St.	L	63-72	25%
Feb 18, 2023	326	SIU Edwardsville	W	76-69	71%
Feb 23, 2023	352	@ Tennessee Martin	W	79-72	70%
Feb 25, 2023	339	Southern Indiana	W	76-67	76%
Projected Record						15 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.1	2.9	4.4	3.8	2.3	0.8		15.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	3.0	5.5	5.2	2.4	0.4				17.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.3	4.4	5.5	3.4	0.8	0.1					15.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.8	4.7	5.0	1.9	0.3	0.0						13.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.0	4.4	3.7	1.1	0.1								11.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.0	3.7	2.6	0.7	0.0									9.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	1.9	2.9	1.5	0.3	0.0										7.1	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	0.5	1.5	2.0	1.0	0.2	0.0											5.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.0	0.4	0.1													3.1	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0														1.6	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.9	3.1	4.6	6.2	7.6	9.2	10.5	11.3	10.7	10.3	8.9	6.8	4.2	2.3	0.8			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	100.0%	2.3		2.2	0.1
16-2	89.7%	3.8		3.0	0.8	0.0
15-3	64.3%	4.4		2.7	1.5	0.2
14-4	32.8%	2.9		1.2	1.3	0.4	0.0
13-5	11.0%	1.1		0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.8%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.4%	15.4		10.1	4.3	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		75.0%	74.0%	1.0%	13.1						0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2		3.8%
17-1	2.3%		57.0%	57.0%		13.9												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	1.0
16-2	4.2%		45.4%	45.4%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	2.3
15-3	6.8%		33.3%	33.3%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	0.8	4.5
14-4	8.9%		24.2%	24.2%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	6.7
13-5	10.3%		17.2%	17.2%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.4	1.3	8.5
12-6	10.7%		11.5%	11.5%		15.8															0.0	0.2	1.0	9.4
11-7	11.3%		7.5%	7.5%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.8	10.4
10-8	10.5%		5.4%	5.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	9.9
9-9	9.2%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																0.0	0.3	8.9
8-10	7.6%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.1	7.4
7-11	6.2%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	6.2
6-12	4.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	4.6
5-13	3.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
4-14	1.9%																							1.9
3-15	1.1%																							1.1
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		13.1%	13.1%	0.0%	15.2						0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	2.0	3.5	6.5	86.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	91.4%	10.8					4.3				4.3	26.7	25.9	21.6	8.6