Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#139
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.0#352
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#117
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 2.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 29.0% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 7.4% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.6 11.1 12.9
.500 or above 63.3% 90.4% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 90.6% 70.1%
Conference Champion 16.6% 32.5% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 0.6% 4.3%
First Four1.5% 3.0% 1.4%
First Round14.2% 27.5% 12.6%
Second Round2.6% 8.3% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 2.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 10.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 410 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 32   @ Miami (FL) L 60-73 11%    
  Nov 17, 2022 118   Towson W 63-62 54%    
  Nov 22, 2022 236   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-63 76%    
  Nov 25, 2022 140   Montana St. W 66-65 51%    
  Nov 26, 2022 141   Hofstra W 69-68 51%    
  Nov 27, 2022 166   Stephen F. Austin W 66-64 56%    
  Nov 30, 2022 270   @ N.C. A&T W 66-62 65%    
  Dec 03, 2022 302   @ Elon W 66-59 72%    
  Dec 06, 2022 11   @ Arkansas L 58-76 7%    
  Dec 13, 2022 159   Marshall W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 22, 2022 219   @ Eastern Kentucky W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 29, 2022 268   @ Western Carolina W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 31, 2022 181   @ Wofford L 62-63 47%    
  Jan 04, 2023 130   Chattanooga W 63-61 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 172   Samford W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 11, 2023 272   @ VMI W 71-66 64%    
  Jan 14, 2023 96   @ Furman L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 19, 2023 265   The Citadel W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 21, 2023 198   Mercer W 66-60 68%    
  Jan 25, 2023 272   VMI W 74-63 80%    
  Jan 29, 2023 96   Furman L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 02, 2023 198   @ Mercer L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 265   @ The Citadel W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 07, 2023 189   East Tennessee St. W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 12, 2023 181   Wofford W 65-60 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 172   @ Samford L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 130   @ Chattanooga L 60-64 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 72-62 79%    
  Feb 25, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-65 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.2 0.7 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.2 4.2 1.7 0.3 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 3.3 0.9 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.5 4.9 6.6 8.1 9.7 10.4 10.7 10.6 9.6 8.0 6.2 4.2 2.2 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
16-2 93.3% 3.9    3.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 71.5% 4.4    3.0 1.3 0.1
14-4 41.5% 3.3    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 17.2% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 11.3 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 87.5% 63.8% 23.7% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 65.6%
17-1 2.2% 68.3% 50.8% 17.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 35.5%
16-2 4.2% 46.3% 38.7% 7.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.3 12.3%
15-3 6.2% 35.5% 31.2% 4.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.0 6.3%
14-4 8.0% 26.1% 25.2% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.9 1.3%
13-5 9.6% 19.6% 19.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 0.4%
12-6 10.6% 15.1% 15.0% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 9.0 0.1%
11-7 10.7% 9.9% 9.9% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.7
10-8 10.4% 7.7% 7.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.6
9-9 9.7% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.1
8-10 8.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.8
7-11 6.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.4
6-12 4.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.8
5-13 3.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.5
4-14 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 14.9% 13.7% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.9 3.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 1.3 85.1 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.6 9.8 39.2 31.4 19.6
Lose Out 0.0%