Preseason Rankings
Vermont
America East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#104
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#306
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#115
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.5% 52.2% 33.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.9
.500 or above 90.7% 93.7% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.2% 93.7%
Conference Champion 58.8% 61.9% 40.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.9% 1.6% 3.6%
First Round48.5% 51.4% 32.1%
Second Round9.6% 10.7% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 414 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 240   Brown W 74-63 85%    
  Nov 10, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 59-68 21%    
  Nov 13, 2022 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-66 59%    
  Nov 15, 2022 37   @ USC L 62-72 19%    
  Nov 18, 2022 101   Iona L 71-72 49%    
  Nov 22, 2022 146   @ Yale W 69-68 51%    
  Nov 25, 2022 200   Ball St. W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 04, 2022 280   @ Merrimack W 66-57 76%    
  Dec 06, 2022 257   @ Dartmouth W 68-61 71%    
  Dec 10, 2022 113   @ Colgate L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 20, 2022 108   Toledo W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 28, 2022 32   @ Miami (FL) L 66-76 20%    
  Jan 01, 2023 236   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 05, 2023 163   Bryant W 81-73 73%    
  Jan 08, 2023 329   @ New Hampshire W 69-56 84%    
  Jan 11, 2023 238   @ Umass Lowell W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 19, 2023 337   Maine W 73-54 94%    
  Jan 22, 2023 325   NJIT W 75-57 92%    
  Jan 25, 2023 323   @ Binghamton W 75-63 83%    
  Jan 28, 2023 236   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-66 81%    
  Feb 04, 2023 300   @ Albany W 70-60 78%    
  Feb 08, 2023 337   @ Maine W 70-57 86%    
  Feb 11, 2023 238   Umass Lowell W 74-63 81%    
  Feb 15, 2023 329   New Hampshire W 72-53 93%    
  Feb 18, 2023 325   @ NJIT W 72-60 83%    
  Feb 22, 2023 323   Binghamton W 78-60 92%    
  Feb 25, 2023 163   @ Bryant W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 28, 2023 300   Albany W 73-57 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 9.8 15.9 17.1 11.6 58.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.2 7.4 6.3 2.4 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.2 3.8 1.8 0.2 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.9 6.1 9.2 12.6 16.4 18.4 17.1 11.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 11.6    11.6
15-1 100.0% 17.1    16.2 1.0
14-2 86.7% 15.9    12.3 3.6 0.1
13-3 60.1% 9.8    5.5 3.8 0.5
12-4 27.0% 3.4    1.3 1.5 0.6 0.0
11-5 8.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 58.8% 58.8 47.0 10.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 11.6% 84.8% 81.4% 3.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.3 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 17.8%
15-1 17.1% 71.6% 69.6% 2.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 4.2 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.9 6.6%
14-2 18.4% 57.9% 57.4% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 7.7 1.2%
13-3 16.4% 46.3% 46.1% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.3 2.4 1.2 0.3 8.8 0.3%
12-4 12.6% 35.5% 35.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.4 8.1
11-5 9.2% 27.7% 27.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 6.6
10-6 6.1% 19.5% 19.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 4.9
9-7 3.9% 14.0% 14.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.4
8-8 2.2% 10.9% 10.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0
7-9 1.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.2
6-10 0.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-11 0.3% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 49.5% 48.6% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.5 5.5 11.3 11.8 9.0 5.0 2.6 50.5 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.8 4.6 11.6 28.0 29.2 14.4 9.7 1.2 1.4