Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#119
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#261
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#191
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 25.5% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 14.1
.500 or above 83.3% 84.5% 57.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 89.7% 77.5%
Conference Champion 30.6% 31.3% 16.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 2.4%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 2.3%
First Round24.5% 25.1% 11.8%
Second Round4.5% 4.7% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 413 - 217 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 352   N.C. A&T W 79-60 96%    
  Nov 14, 2023 87   @ Vanderbilt L 65-71 30%    
  Nov 17, 2023 17   @ Arkansas L 63-77 10%    
  Nov 24, 2023 286   UMKC W 67-57 81%    
  Dec 07, 2023 134   Eastern Kentucky W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 10, 2023 309   Elon W 73-59 89%    
  Dec 16, 2023 135   @ Marshall L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 19, 2023 278   @ High Point W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 29, 2023 15   @ Texas L 62-76 11%    
  Jan 03, 2024 104   Furman W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 06, 2024 239   East Tennessee St. W 70-60 80%    
  Jan 11, 2024 165   @ Samford L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 13, 2024 197   @ Chattanooga W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 17, 2024 320   The Citadel W 75-60 89%    
  Jan 20, 2024 242   Wofford W 72-62 80%    
  Jan 24, 2024 205   @ Western Carolina W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 237   Mercer W 69-59 79%    
  Jan 31, 2024 351   @ VMI W 75-62 85%    
  Feb 04, 2024 104   @ Furman L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 08, 2024 165   Samford W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 10, 2024 197   Chattanooga W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 14, 2024 320   @ The Citadel W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 17, 2024 242   @ Wofford W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 21, 2024 205   Western Carolina W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 237   @ Mercer W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 28, 2024 351   VMI W 78-59 93%    
  Mar 02, 2024 239   @ East Tennessee St. W 67-63 62%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.6 8.3 7.5 4.9 1.7 30.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.0 7.3 6.2 2.9 0.5 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 6.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.0 1.0 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.3 6.3 8.4 10.7 12.4 13.2 12.5 11.2 8.0 4.9 1.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 4.9    4.7 0.1
16-2 93.6% 7.5    6.5 1.1
15-3 74.1% 8.3    5.8 2.4 0.1
14-4 44.6% 5.6    2.7 2.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.7% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.6% 30.6 22.0 7.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 81.3% 74.4% 6.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 26.9%
17-1 4.9% 63.3% 58.3% 5.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 12.0%
16-2 8.0% 52.1% 50.7% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.9 2.8%
15-3 11.2% 40.8% 40.5% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.6 0.4%
14-4 12.5% 31.0% 31.0% 13.3 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 8.6
13-5 13.2% 23.4% 23.4% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 10.1
12-6 12.4% 16.6% 16.6% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 10.4
11-7 10.7% 12.5% 12.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 9.4
10-8 8.4% 9.3% 9.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 7.6
9-9 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.9
8-10 4.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.1
7-11 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
6-12 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.0% 24.5% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.4 5.5 6.4 5.1 2.8 1.5 75.0 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 10.3 5.1 42.3 19.2 12.8 10.3