Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#7
Expected Predictive Rating+19.9#8
Pace69.2#142
Improvement+3.9#33

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#26
First Shot+5.6#50
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#49
Layup/Dunks+6.8#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#354
Freethrows+4.3#8
Improvement+0.0#193

Defense
Total Defense+11.7#3
First Shot+9.5#6
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#36
Layups/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#82
Freethrows+2.5#41
Improvement+4.0#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 15.4% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 84.8% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round96.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen67.4% n/a n/a
Elite Eight40.6% n/a n/a
Final Four17.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game7.6% n/a n/a
National Champion3.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b10 - 213 - 5
Quad 25 - 118 - 6
Quad 35 - 023 - 6
Quad 44 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 251   Monmouth W 81-57 99%     1 - 0 +16.4 +0.9 +14.7
  Nov 07, 2024 312   Niagara W 96-60 99%     2 - 0 +24.1 +15.4 +8.3
  Nov 12, 2024 18   Kansas L 69-77 62%     2 - 1 +8.4 -1.9 +11.2
  Nov 16, 2024 292   Bowling Green W 86-72 99%     3 - 1 +3.6 +8.8 -5.4
  Nov 19, 2024 124   Samford W 83-75 96%     4 - 1 +7.6 +7.0 +0.5
  Nov 25, 2024 76   Colorado W 72-56 87%     5 - 1 +23.5 +6.1 +17.7
  Nov 26, 2024 54   Memphis L 63-71 80%     5 - 2 +2.6 +3.4 -1.6
  Nov 27, 2024 31   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 70%     6 - 2 +17.1 +15.4 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 85   @ Minnesota W 90-72 84%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +27.2 +30.6 -1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 57   Nebraska W 89-52 87%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +44.3 +19.4 +24.5
  Dec 17, 2024 182   Oakland W 77-58 96%     9 - 2 +17.6 +10.3 +9.3
  Dec 21, 2024 114   Florida Atlantic W 86-69 95%     10 - 2 +17.6 +6.5 +10.1
  Dec 30, 2024 293   Western Michigan W 80-62 99%     11 - 2 +7.6 -1.1 +8.0
  Jan 03, 2025 40   @ Ohio St. W 69-62 65%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +22.6 +3.9 +18.9
  Jan 09, 2025 107   Washington W 88-54 95%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +35.2 +12.8 +21.3
  Jan 12, 2025 49   @ Northwestern W 78-68 71%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +23.9 +13.9 +10.1
  Jan 15, 2025 58   Penn St. W 90-85 88%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +12.2 +16.9 -4.9
  Jan 19, 2025 20   Illinois W 80-78 72%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +15.6 +8.0 +7.4
  Jan 25, 2025 66   @ Rutgers W 81-74 79%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +18.0 +9.5 +8.3
  Jan 28, 2025 85   Minnesota W 73-51 92%     18 - 2 9 - 0 +25.7 +13.6 +15.4
  Feb 01, 2025 60   @ USC L 64-70 76%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +6.4 -2.8 +8.9
  Feb 04, 2025 25   @ UCLA L 61-63 57%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +15.9 +3.1 +12.6
  Feb 08, 2025 34   Oregon W 86-74 79%     19 - 4 10 - 2 +23.1 +20.5 +2.9
  Feb 11, 2025 46   Indiana L 67-71 85%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +4.7 +4.1 +0.3
  Feb 15, 2025 20   @ Illinois W 79-65 52%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +33.1 +16.1 +17.4
  Feb 18, 2025 17   Purdue W 75-66 72%     21 - 5 12 - 3 +22.7 +17.4 +6.8
  Feb 21, 2025 24   @ Michigan W 75-62 55%     22 - 5 13 - 3 +31.2 +17.3 +14.8
  Feb 26, 2025 12   @ Maryland W 58-55 42%     23 - 5 14 - 3 +24.7 -1.4 +26.2
  Mar 02, 2025 14   Wisconsin W 71-62 67%     24 - 5 15 - 3 +24.1 +1.0 +22.7
  Mar 06, 2025 61   @ Iowa W 91-84 76%     25 - 5 16 - 3 +19.2 +16.5 +2.5
  Mar 09, 2025 24   Michigan W 79-62 75%     26 - 5 17 - 3 +29.7 +12.6 +16.9
  Mar 14, 2025 34   Oregon W 74-64 71%     27 - 5 +23.9 +9.3 +14.7
  Mar 15, 2025 14   Wisconsin L 74-77 57%     27 - 6 +14.9 +9.4 +5.5
Projected Record 27 - 6 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.0 15.4 69.4 14.9 0.4 100.0%
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 15.4 69.4 14.9 0.4 100.0%